This Sector Is Poised for a Huge Reversal
By Jeff Clark
January 19, 2010
Transportation stocks are running out of gas.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average has rallied nearly 20% in just the past 10 weeks. Airlines, railroads, trucking, and delivery service stocks have raced higher without obstruction, like Ferraris on the Autobahn. But the fuel gauge is now on "E," and it's time for a pit stop.
Take a look at this chart of the bullish percent index for the transportation sector (BPTRAN)...
A bullish percent index (BPI) measures the percentage of stocks in a sector trading with bullish "point and figure" chart patterns. It's best used as a measure of overbought and oversold conditions.
When a BPI drops below 30, it means less than 30% of the stocks in the sector are trading in a bullish pattern. That's an oversold situation and suggests the sector is vulnerable to a bounce. On the other hand, when a BPI rises above 80, it indicates an overbought situation and suggests the sector may be poised to correct.
An overbought condition by itself isn't enough to trigger a short sell for the sector. Overbought conditions can get more overbought just as oversold conditions can get more oversold. But when a bullish percent index reaches an extreme condition and then reverses, it often provides the catalyst for a good trading opportunity.
As you can see from the above chart, the BPI for the transportation sector recently hit as high as 95. It's almost mathematically impossible for it to rise more than that. The BPTRAN turned down last week. And recently, it dropped below its 20-day moving average.
Moving-average crossovers have worked well to trigger buy and sell signals in the past. For example, back in September, the BPTRAN ran into overbought territory (above 80) and then turned lower and dropped below the 20-day moving average.
Transport stocks then entered a short-term decline phase. The Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped from a high of about 4,100 to 3,600 – a decline of 12% – in just six weeks.
We have a similar setup today.
If you own transportation stocks, you might consider taking some of the recent fast profits off the table. Aggressive traders should think about shorting the sector. The coming pullback could mean big profits.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
Editor's note: Jeff recently told his Short Report subscribers about a trade that could soar as the transportation sector declines. This is a speculative trade, so it's not for everyone. But it could return up to 335%. To learn more about Short Report – and get access to Jeff's trade – click here. |
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Oil & gas pipelines surge... Kinder Morgan, Spectra Energy, Plains All American, and Energy Transfer reach fresh highs. |
| • |
Biotech fund IBB up 10% since November. |
| • |
New highs for gaming... Wynn Resorts and Bally Technologies up 90%-plus in the last 12 months. |
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Earnings today... Citigroup, CSX, IBM. |
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Last |
Change |
52-Wk |
| S&P 500 |
1126.48 |
+0.53% |
+30.17% |
| Oil (USO) |
38.20 |
+1.22% |
-31.63% |
| Gold (GLD) |
108.36 |
+1.70% |
+29.83% |
| Silver (SLV) |
17.17 |
+2.14% |
+67.02% |
| U.S. Dollar |
77.61 |
-0.38% |
-4.15% |
| Euro |
1.44 |
+0.55% |
+2.50% |
| VIX |
19.47 |
-1.22% |
-55.96% |
| HUI |
438.37 |
+0.39% |
+58.85% |
| 10-Year Yield |
3.81% |
0.06 |
2.84 |
|
| Company |
Sym |
Industry |
Pfizer |
PFE |
Big Pharma |
Merck |
MRK |
Big Pharma |
MasterCard |
MA |
credit cards |
Kellogg |
K |
packaged foods |
Energy Transfer |
ETE |
pipelines |
Spectra Energy |
SE |
pipelines |
Kinder Morgan |
KMP |
pipelines |
Toyota |
TM |
autos |
Staples |
SPLS |
office retail |
WellPoint |
WLP |
health insurance |
Sotheby's |
BID |
auctions |
Plains All American |
PAA |
pipelines |
Honda |
HMC |
autos |
Emerson Electric |
EMR |
industrial equip |
Wynn Resorts |
WYNN |
casinos |
Cisco |
CSCO |
network equip |
Altria |
MO |
cigarettes |
Philips Electronics |
PHG |
electronics |
Cheesecake |
CAKE |
restaurants |
Oracle |
ORCL |
software |
UnitedHealth |
UNH |
health insurance |
Celgene |
CELG |
biotech |
Trustmark |
TRMK |
bank |
General Mills |
GIS |
packaged foods |
Bally Technologies |
BYI |
gaming equip |
PNC Financial |
PNC |
bank |
OfficeMax |
OMX |
office retail |
|
|
| Company |
Sym |
Industry |
Pantry |
PTRY |
grocery stores |
Plug Power |
PLUG |
industrial equip |
Brooklyn Federal |
BFSB |
bank |
Integ Electrical |
IESC |
contractor |
Nobel Learning |
NLCI |
for profit ed |
|
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