Growth Stock Wire Investment Newsletter

 
Growth Stock Wire Investment Newsletter About Growth Stock Wire Frequently Asked Questions Growth Stock Wire Archives Contact Us Privacy Policy
Print Edition | Sponsored Link:

This Sector Is Poised for a Huge Reversal
By Jeff Clark
January 19, 2010

Transportation stocks are running out of gas.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has rallied nearly 20% in just the past 10 weeks. Airlines, railroads, trucking, and delivery service stocks have raced higher without obstruction, like Ferraris on the Autobahn. But the fuel gauge is now on "E," and it's time for a pit stop.

Take a look at this chart of the bullish percent index for the transportation sector (BPTRAN)...


A bullish percent index (BPI) measures the percentage of stocks in a sector trading with bullish "point and figure" chart patterns. It's best used as a measure of overbought and oversold conditions.

When a BPI drops below 30, it means less than 30% of the stocks in the sector are trading in a bullish pattern. That's an oversold situation and suggests the sector is vulnerable to a bounce. On the other hand, when a BPI rises above 80, it indicates an overbought situation and suggests the sector may be poised to correct.

An overbought condition by itself isn't enough to trigger a short sell for the sector. Overbought conditions can get more overbought just as oversold conditions can get more oversold. But when a bullish percent index reaches an extreme condition and then reverses, it often provides the catalyst for a good trading opportunity.

As you can see from the above chart, the BPI for the transportation sector recently hit as high as 95. It's almost mathematically impossible for it to rise more than that. The BPTRAN turned down last week. And recently, it dropped below its 20-day moving average.

Moving-average crossovers have worked well to trigger buy and sell signals in the past. For example, back in September, the BPTRAN ran into overbought territory (above 80) and then turned lower and dropped below the 20-day moving average.

 
Related Articles
The Second Shoe Is About to Drop on the Banks
A Major Uptrend Is Just Getting Started in This Hated Asset
 
Transport stocks then entered a short-term decline phase. The Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped from a high of about 4,100 to 3,600 – a decline of 12% – in just six weeks.

We have a similar setup today.

If you own transportation stocks, you might consider taking some of the recent fast profits off the table. Aggressive traders should think about shorting the sector. The coming pullback could mean big profits.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

Editor's note: Jeff recently told his Short Report subscribers about a trade that could soar as the transportation sector declines. This is a speculative trade, so it's not for everyone. But it could return up to 335%. To learn more about Short Report – and get access to Jeff's trade – click here.

Porter Stansberry: This business makes a lot of money during inflation...
"Expect to see outrageous profits."

MSNBC host: Cheat to keep Massachusetts democrats in power
"If I lived in Mass., I'd vote 10 times..."

Doug Casey: China bubble is "going to burst, and it's going to be a disaster"
Says country is in an unbelievable real estate bubble.


Oil & gas pipelines surge... Kinder Morgan, Spectra Energy, Plains All American, and Energy Transfer reach fresh highs.
Biotech fund IBB up 10% since November.
New highs for gaming... Wynn Resorts and Bally Technologies up 90%-plus in the last 12 months.
Earnings today... Citigroup, CSX, IBM.
Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500 1126.48 +0.53% +30.17%
Oil (USO) 38.20 +1.22% -31.63%
Gold (GLD) 108.36 +1.70% +29.83%
Silver (SLV) 17.17 +2.14% +67.02%
U.S. Dollar 77.61 -0.38% -4.15%
Euro
1.44
+0.55%
+2.50%
VIX 19.47 -1.22% -55.96%
HUI 438.37 +0.39% +58.85%
10-Year Yield 3.81% 0.06 2.84

Advertisement

Company Sym Industry

Pfizer

PFE

Big Pharma

Merck

MRK

Big Pharma

MasterCard

MA

credit cards

Kellogg

K

packaged foods

Energy Transfer

ETE

pipelines

Spectra Energy

SE

pipelines

Kinder Morgan

KMP

pipelines

Toyota

TM

autos

Staples

SPLS

office retail

WellPoint

WLP

health insurance

Sotheby's

BID

auctions

Plains All American

PAA

pipelines

Honda

HMC

autos

Emerson Electric

EMR

industrial equip

Wynn Resorts

WYNN

casinos

Cisco

CSCO

network equip

Altria

MO

cigarettes

Philips Electronics

PHG

electronics

Cheesecake

CAKE

restaurants

Oracle

ORCL

software

UnitedHealth

UNH

health insurance

Celgene

CELG

biotech

Trustmark

TRMK

bank

General Mills

GIS

packaged foods

Bally Technologies

BYI

gaming equip

PNC Financial

PNC

bank

OfficeMax

OMX

office retail

Company Sym Industry

Pantry

PTRY

grocery stores

Plug Power

PLUG

industrial equip

Brooklyn Federal

BFSB

bank

Integ Electrical

IESC

contractor

Nobel Learning

NLCI

for profit ed

Weekend Edition: Three Stories I Hope You'll Take Very Seriously
January 16, 2010

One of the Biggest Tech Shifts of Our Lifetimes, Part II

January 15, 2010

The Market Must Hold This Level

January 14, 2010

Your Best Shot at Making 10 Times Your Money in 2010

January 13, 2010

The Second Shoe Is About to Drop on the Banks

January 12, 2010

Home | About GSW | FAQ | GSW Archive | Privacy Policy | Contact Us

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2010 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202