Another Ominous Sign for Stock Prices
By Jeff Clark
June 23, 2009
The Volatility Index is pointing to another 1,000-point move.
The Volatility Index (aka the "VIX") is best used as a fear barometer. A rising VIX shows increasing fear among investors. It's commonly associated with declining stock prices. A falling VIX, on the other hand, indicates investors are less fearful and more willing to take risks. It often leads to rising stock prices.
The last time we looked at the volatility index, it was on the verge of breaking down through major support on the chart. We surmised that if Wall Street's fear barometer dropped below 39, it would kick off a 1,000-point rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The VIX did indeed break down, and the Dow – which was trading around 7,600 at the time – rallied as high as 8,800.
Today, the VIX is giving us another signal. This time, it's going in the other direction. Take a look...
Last week, the VIX broke out of a falling-wedge formation. It rallied up to resistance at 33 and then turned back to retest the breakout level. Now, it's on its way back up again.
If the Volatility Index can push above 33, it's a straight shot up to 39 – perhaps even as high as 46. Since a rising VIX indicates increasing levels of fear in the market, and increasing fear is typically caused by falling stock prices, this chart is a bad omen for the market over the next few weeks.
Of course, it's just one more bad sign in a sea of bad signs we've covered lately. This one, though, may be indicating a 1,000-point drop.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark |
|
|
| • |
Hatteras nears six-month high... the "virtual bank" is up 23% from March lows, still paying 15% dividends. |
| • |
Oil stocks tumble... energy fund XLE 15% off June 11 peak. |
| • |
Utilities stay positive... every major sector except utilities is now lower for the month. |
| • |
Earnings today... Jabil Circuit, Kroger, Oracle, Sonic, Steelcase. |
|
Last |
Change |
52-Wk |
| S&P 500 |
893.04 |
-3.06% |
-32.24% |
| Oil (USO) |
36.25 |
-4.53% |
-66.79% |
| Gold (GLD) |
90.54 |
-1.48% |
+1.79% |
| Silver (SLV) |
13.54 |
-3.22% |
-21.26% |
| U.S. Dollar |
80.42 |
-0.51% |
+9.51% |
| Euro |
1.40 |
+0.95% |
-9.86% |
| VIX |
31.17 |
+11.36% |
+36.29% |
| HUI |
318.27 |
-6.36% |
-23.29% |
| 10-Year Yield |
3.69% |
-0.09 |
-0.40 |
|
| Company |
Sym |
Industry |
NVE |
NVEC |
semiconductors |
Alliance Financial |
ALNC |
bank |
Starent Networks |
STAR |
networks |
Hawkins |
HWKN |
materials |
Orchids Paper |
TIS |
paper products |
Euronet Worldwide |
EEFT |
business services |
Todd Shipyards |
TOD |
shipbuilding |
99 Cents Only |
NDN |
dollar stores |
Florida Public |
FPU |
utilities |
Cornerstone |
CRTX |
biotech |
ChinaCast |
CAST |
for-profit ed |
Acacia Research |
ACTG |
medical research |
NeurogesX |
NGSX |
biotech |
Health Fitness |
FIT |
wellness |
Plato Learning |
TUTR |
business services |
Saba Software |
SABA |
software |
CyberDefender |
CYDE |
software |
Helix Wind |
HLXW |
wind energy |
Avanir Pharma |
AVNR |
pharma |
AVI BioPharma |
AVII |
biotech |
Blugrass Energy |
BLUG |
drilling |
Vortex Resources |
VXRC |
drilling |
|
| Company |
Sym |
Industry |
Callaway Golf |
ELY |
golf equipment |
Pacific Capital |
PCBC |
bank |
Republic Airways |
RJET |
airline |
Progenics |
PGNX |
biotech |
Susquehanna |
SUSQ |
bank |
Matrixx Initiatives |
MTXX |
pharma |
Pinnacle |
PNFP |
bank |
CardioNet |
BEAT |
medical devices |
Clayton Williams |
CWEI |
drilling |
OSI Pharma |
OSIP |
biotech |
APP Pharma |
ABII |
biotech |
|
|
| Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2010 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202 |
