Why I'm Buying Gold Stocks
By Jeff Clark
October 21, 2008
This market offers no guarantees.
But I'm confident one sector will be higher three, six, nine, and 12 months from now. It's the gold stocks.
Last Friday, on a conference call with S&A subscribers, I confessed I bought gold stocks during last Thursday's wicked decline. I also bought them when they opened lower on Friday.
My bullishness on gold stocks probably came as a surprise to many listeners. And I'm sure it surprised the other editors at S&A. But the other editors probably didn't see this chart...
This chart compares the action in gold to the action in gold stocks. If the chart moves higher, gold stocks are outperforming the metal. And if the chart moves lower, gold is outperforming the gold stocks.
Right now, gold stocks are at the lowest relative value to gold in over six years. In other words, gold stocks are cheaper now, relative to the price of the metal, than they have been since the golden bull market started back in 2002.
Of course, the stocks can get cheaper still. But that's a historically low probability. Either gold stocks have to rally from this level, or gold itself has to fall.
The price of gold could fall from here, but I wouldn't bet on it.
The unprecedented printing of money by the U.S. and all other central banks is inflationary.
We can argue about the slowing economy. We can argue about the deflationary affects of crumbling asset prices. And we can argue about how hedge funds and other institutional liquidations are temporarily depressing the price of gold.
But when the U.S. Treasury elects to print money in an effort to bail out the banks, brokerage firms, insurance companies, retailers, automobile manufacturers, airlines, mortgage brokers, rating agencies, credit-card companies, and consumers, gold becomes more valuable. There is no argument against this.
And if gold rises in price, so too will gold stocks – especially if the stocks are starting from depressed levels.
Like I said, there are no guarantees. Gold stocks could trend lower over the next few days. But if you were to ask me where I'm putting my own money right now in order to profit over the next three, six, nine, and 12 months, well... I'm buying the gold stocks.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
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Oil $50
OPEC, the supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, plans to cut output for the first time in almost two years as the worst financial crisis since the 1930s sends crude toward $50 a barrel.
Options contracts to sell oil at $50 by December soared 50- fold in the past two weeks on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. analysts say crude, which fell more than 50 percent from a record high in July to a 14-month low last week, may drop another 44 percent should the world economy slip into a recession. Read on...
The Aussie Dollar Is Getting Cheap as Hell
Currencies including the South African rand, the Mexican peso and Australia's dollar are undervalued by more than 20 percent based on inflation, productivity and terms of trade, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
The three have been the worst performers of the 16 most- active currencies against the greenback over the past month, falling 21 percent, 18 percent and 16 percent respectively as equity markets and commodity prices tumbled amid a global credit crisis. MSCI's World Index, a benchmark for global stocks, dropped 21 percent in that time and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, which tracks commodities futures, slumped 24 percent. Read on...
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Eddie Lampert's Sears Holding battles recession... down 70% since 2007. |
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Aussie dollar follows commodity crash... hits eight-year low. |
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Retailers New York & Company, Charlotte Russe, and Bassett Furniture at new lows. |
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Earnings today... 3M, Apple, Caterpillar, Freeport-McMoRan, Pfizer, Yahoo. |
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Last |
Change |
52-Wk |
| S&P 500 |
907.84 |
-9.03% |
-40.99% |
| Oil (USO) |
60.73 |
-6.61% |
-9.33% |
| Gold (GLD) |
83.31 |
+1.35% |
+10.90% |
| Silver (SLV) |
10.27 |
-5.43% |
-23.92% |
| U.S. Dollar |
82.06 |
+0.02% |
+5.04% |
| Euro |
1.35 |
+0.36% |
-4.87% |
| VIX |
69.25 |
+25.61% |
+245.90% |
| HUI |
231.32 |
-10.40% |
-43.73% |
| 10-Year Yield |
4.01% |
-0.01 |
-0.56 |
|
| Company |
Sym |
Industry |
Nevada Chemicals |
NCEM |
chemicals |
|
| Company |
Sym |
Industry |
Kimco Realty |
KIM |
REIT |
Sears Holdings |
SHLD |
holding company |
YRC Worldwide |
YRCW |
trucking |
Logitech |
LOGI |
computer parts |
Brunswick |
BC |
boats |
Hormel Foods |
HRL |
food products |
Torchmark |
TMK |
insurance |
Methanex |
MEOH |
global methanol |
Veolia |
VE |
utilities |
TRW Automotive |
TRW |
auto parts |
Novatel Wireless |
NVTL |
communications |
New York & Co |
NWY |
clothing |
Raser Tech |
RZ |
industrial products |
Redwood Trust |
RWT |
mortgage REIT |
Syneron Medical |
ELOS |
medical devices |
United Stationers |
USTR |
business products |
Rackable Systems |
RACK |
computers |
Charlotte Russe |
CHIC |
clothing |
Guaranty Financial |
GFG |
bank |
Asbury Automotive |
ABG |
auto dealer |
Sappi |
SPP |
paper products |
Dolan Media |
DM |
publishing |
Parkway Properties |
PKY |
REIT |
Mercantile |
MBR |
bank |
U.S. Lime |
USLM |
limestone |
Sealy |
ZZ |
mattresses |
4 Kids |
KDE |
media |
Bassett Furniture |
BSET |
furniture |
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