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Get Ready to Buy These Energy Stocks
By Brian Heyliger, editor, Inside Strategist
October 13, 2008

You consume about 20 pounds of coal per day...

That's the average for each American. The majority of that coal generates electricity. And about half the electricity generated in the U.S. comes from coal... Demand for coal isn't going anywhere.

But judging by the past three months, you might think that's exactly what happened.

It's been a long time coming for coal. The global credit crunch first took down housing stocks... then mortgage stocks... then retail stocks... then bank stocks. Now, the selling has spread to the energy complex... particularly coal stocks.

From their respective peaks this summer, oil is down 38% and natural gas is down 50%. Coal is doing better than the rest... down just 19%. But you'd never know by looking at coal stocks. Take a look at how share prices of the largest U.S. coal producers have collapsed since July:

Name

Ticker

7/2/2008

10/9/2008

Drop

Patriot

PCX

$75.61

$14.42

-80.39%

Foundation

FCL

$89.51

$20.47

-77.13%

Massey

MEE

$92.01

21.88

-76.22%

James River

JRCC

$58.20

$15.96

-72.58%

Walter

WLT

$111.99

$32.70

-70.80%

CONSOL

CNX

$110.01

$33.10

-69.91%

Arch Coal

ACI

$74.93

$22.53

-69.93%

Peabody

BTU

$85.01

$29.58

-65.20%

Keep in mind... these aren't companies with warehouses full of clothes that won't sell. They don't own mortgage assets that can evaporate in a matter of hours. They just own millions and millions of tons of coal. They dig up the coal. Then they sell it. That's about it.

These companies aren't speculative microcaps. These are the largest players in the coal industry. And they are simply victims of the huge liquidation going on in the hedge-fund and mutual-fund world...

Up until July, coal producers – along with producers of oil, fertilizer, copper, and iron ore – have been one of 2008's most popular and profitable hedge-fund trades: long commodities. Billions of dollars rushed into the relatively small coal sector. This caused most coal stocks to double or even triple in value... and it made coal one of the best-performing sectors through June.

The Secret Signal That Kept Us Out of the Steel Crash

What Industry Insiders Think About Energy's Washout

But as you can see from the table above, the tide has completely washed away. According to Bloomberg, hedge funds are turning in their worst performance in 19 years. Investors are furious... and they're demanding their money back. Funds have had to dump commodity stocks – along with other investments – to raise cash for investors. The companies above have all fallen more than 60% in just a few short months. It's insane.

And the insanity has led some coal insiders to open up their checkbooks. Here's the buying we've seen in the last three months:

Company

Ticker

3-Month Buys

Average Price

Natural Resource

NRP

$2.1M

$24.09

Patriot Coal

PCX

$1.6M

$51.15

Walter Industries

WLT

$1.4M

$40.55

Consol Energy

CNX

$61.1K

$61.14

This is what I call "cluster buying." When you have multiple insiders buying in the same sector, chances are they know something we don't. It's why cluster buys are one of the greatest inside indicators... and why I'm bullish on coal.

But I don't think it's time to pull the trigger yet... Volatility is near all-time highs. Entire sectors have dropped 33% in just a few days. Now's the time to put together a buy list for when things return to "normal." Once that happens, you should take a look at coal.

Good investing,

Brian

Japanese Safe Haven in "Total Disarray"
Financial markets across Asia fell sharply on Friday as investors rushed out to raise cash, fearing further deterioration in the financial system and the arrival of a full-blown global recession.

Japan, which so far weathered the storm better than others, saw the steepest drop in shares in the region. In the largest one-day decline since October 1987, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 9.6% to close at 8276.43, 24% below where it was at the beginning of the brutal week. At one point on Friday, the Nikkei was down 12%. WSJ ($) Read on...

Governments Close World Markets
Indonesia halted stock-market trading for a second full day, while exchanges in Russia and Ukraine were suspended indefinitely as the credit crisis extended a plunge in global equities.

Iceland's market remains shut for the second day, part of a suspension that will last through Oct. 13. A 10 percent decline in Thailand's benchmark index triggered a 30-minute halt.
Read on...


Japanese yen hits a six-month high... Mrs. Watanabe is about to get burned.
IMPOSSIBLE: ExxonMobil loses 15% on Friday. IMPROBABLE: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway hits new 52-week low.
Internet advertising giants Google and Yahoo make 52-week lows.
More Wall Street carnage... investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs at new lows.
Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500

845.66

-7.06%

-45.60%

Oil (USO)

64.27

-7.66%

+1.07%

Gold (GLD)

84.33

-6.20%

+14.10%

Silver (SLV)

10.37

-13.24%

-23.99%

U.S. Dollar

82.59

+1.62%

+5.65%

Euro
1.34
-1.70%
-5.92%
VIX

73.38

+14.80%

+288.67%

HUI

238.98

-15.91%

-41.78%

10-Year Yield

3.86%

0.03

-0.66

Advertisement

Company Sym Industry

Transocean

RIG

oil drilling

Schering-Plough

SGP

pharma

Morgan Stanley

MS

investment bank

Microsoft

MSFT

software giant

Southern Co

SO

utilities

Moody's

MCO

credit ratings

Apple

AAPL

computers

Pfizer

PFE

Big Pharma

Intel

INTC

semiconductors

Chesapeake Energy

CHK

natural gas

ExxonMobil

XOM

Big Oil

Hewlett-Packard

HPQ

computers

Procter & Gamble

PG

conglomerate

SPDR Energy

XLE

ETF

AT&T

T

telecom

Companhia Vale

RIO

iron ore

Goldman Sachs

GS

investment bank

Time Warner

TWX

media

iS Japan

EWJ

ETF

Schlumberger

SLB

oil services

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

health care

Semi HOLDRs

SMH

ETF

Petrobras

PBR

Big Oil

Chevron

CVX

Big Oil

National Oilwell

NOV

oil services

American Express

AXP

credit cards

IBM

IBM

computers

Cemex

CX

cement

Alcoa

AA

aluminum

Boston Scientific

BSX

medical devices

EMC

EMC

data storage

PepsiCo

PEP

food products

Halliburton

HAL

oil services

Nokia

NOK

cell phones

Dell

DELL

computers

XTO Energy

XTO

natural gas

iShares Brazil

EWZ

ETF

Freeport-McMoRan

FCX

copper

Walt Disney

DIS

entertainment

Duke Energy

DUK

utilities

Lowe's

LOW

home imp

Yahoo

YHOO

internet svcs

Philip Morris

PM

tobacco

Bristol-Myers

BMY

Big Pharma

McDonald's

MCD

fast food

Weatherford Intl

WFT

oil services

BP

BP

Big Oil

Target

TGT

retail

ConocoPhillips

COP

Big Oil

Weekend Edition: Don't Blow It
October 11, 2008

For the Best Bargains, Look Abroad
October 10, 2008

It's Time to Take Advantage of the Fear
October 9, 2008

Commodity Q&A: What to Buy When Prices Are Down
October 8, 2008

It's Rally Time
October 7, 2008

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