Obama's Win Will Launch This Sector
By Dr. George Huang
November 7, 2008
Of all Barack Obama's coming policies, none has investment analysts more excited than the ones directed at energy...
He plans to invest $150 billion over 10 years on low-carbon energy sources. So natural gas, solar, and wind are immediately the "must-own" industries.
Solar stocks, like Suntech and First Solar, shot up 70% in the last few weeks, before profit-taking pared back some of the gains. Natural gas plays like Chesapeake Energy enjoyed a similar run.
It may be too late to make easy money trading the clean energy names.
But investors have overlooked one obscure sector that will benefit tremendously under Obama... Obama vowed to "invest $10 billion a year over the next five years" to benefit this sector.
The sector Obama is talking about is health care IT. He believes upgrades in health care IT will help rein in health care spending. And he's right.
We spent $2.3 trillion on health care last year, a whopping 16% of our GDP. By 2016, we would be looking at $4.2 trillion and 20% of our GDP. Currently, administrative health care costs account for over 30% of the total. As a percentage, we spend about 2-3 times as much on administration as other developed nations.
The RAND Corporation, a leading health care think tank, estimates the industry could save $162 billion per year through the simple IT upgrades. Switching records from a paper-based system to an electronic one and using bar coding and tracking software will save hospitals time and money, which will also lead to increased efficiency.
And the only way to make these changes is to put more money into health care IT. Last year, health care IT spending by doctors, hospitals, pharmacies, insurers, and the U.S. government totaled about $20 billion. So Obama's $50 billion plan is a significant boost.
Even accounting for a decrease in IT expenditures due to the recession, Obama's plan is enough to drive revenue and earnings to new heights for the sector.
The problem is, more than 300 companies are vying for a piece of the market. Because of the fragmented market, investors don't know where to start.
Let me make your life easy. Here's a list of the most prominent public health care IT companies. The big caps, like McKesson and Cerner, are growing revenues and earnings at double-digit rates. The rest, due to the smaller revenue base, are growing even faster. All of them are extremely profitable with solid balance sheets.
But investors are treating them like any average stocks. With the exception of Quality Systems, these companies are all down year to date. If Obama goes through with his plan, as I predict, these companies will be the biggest beneficiaries. I expect shares to trade 30% higher by next year.
Company |
Market
Segment |
2007 Revenue |
Market Cap |
YTD Returns |
McKesson (MCK) |
All Segments |
~$2B * |
$10B |
-44% |
Cerner (CERN) |
All Segments |
$1.5B |
$3.2B |
-34% |
Eclipsys (ECLP) |
Large Hospitals |
$478M |
$800M |
-41% |
Quality Systems (QSII) |
Phys. Practices / Hosp. |
$180M |
$1.2B |
+26% |
Allscripts (MDRX) |
Phys. Practices / Hosp. |
$282M |
$400M |
-67% |
| Athenahealth (ATHN) |
Physician Practices |
$101M |
$900M |
-15% |
| HMS Hldgs (HMSY) |
Payment Services |
$147M |
$600M |
-25% |
| * McKesson's health care IT revenue only |
|
If you want to take advantage of this mega trend, I recommend you use this short list as a starting point. For readers looking for a safe and steady investment, McKesson is my favorite. At around $37 per share, you can buy this word-class company for just nine times earnings. And the returns will soundly beat the S&P 500 in the next decade.
Good investing,
George Huang
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Surprised by plunging demand, ArcelorMittal said it will slash steel production by at least 35% - more than double what the company announced just last month.
"We have seen a drop in Europe go much faster in the last two weeks. And now we are seeing the impacts in the emerging markets," ArcelorMittal Chief Executive Lakshmi Mittal said. The U.S. is also weak as automotive and construction demand declines, he said. "I hope that this is already at the worst point." WSJ ($) Read on...
IEA Predicts $100 Oil After Recession
Oil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the International Energy Agency will say in its flagship report to be published next week.
"While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over," the report states. FT ($) Read on...
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| • |
The recession claims two more victims...
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| • |
Expensive chain restaurants Morton's, Ruth's Chris, McCormick & Schmick's hit new lows. |
| • |
And clothing... Perry Ellis, AnnTaylor, The Talbots, and Warnaco Group at 52-week lows. |
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Earnings today... Brookfield Asset Management, Enerplus, Ford, General Motors, Sotheby's. |
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|
Last |
Change |
52-Wk |
| S&P 500 |
906.23 |
-4.88% |
-38.59% |
| Oil (USO) |
49.94 |
-7.24% |
-32.95% |
| Gold (GLD) |
72.27 |
-0.73% |
-12.12% |
| Silver (SLV) |
9.94 |
-2.64% |
-34.48% |
| U.S. Dollar |
86.01 |
+1.46% |
+14.02% |
| Euro |
1.27 |
-1.68% |
-13.02% |
| VIX |
62.98 |
+15.43% |
+137.75% |
| HUI |
195.35 |
-8.55% |
-56.39% |
| 10-Year Yield |
3.71% |
0.02 |
-0.53 |
|
| Company |
Sym |
Industry |
Transmeta |
TMTA |
semiconductors |
|
| Company |
Sym |
Industry |
Lear Corp |
LEA |
auto parts |
AnnTaylor |
ANN |
clothing |
Louisiana-Pacific |
LPX |
lumber |
USG |
USG |
drywall |
Orient-Express |
OEH |
hotels |
A.C. Moore |
ACMR |
art supplies |
Mohawk Industries |
MHK |
flooring |
Perry Ellis |
PERY |
clothing |
Crosstex Energy |
XTEX |
oil & gas |
U.S. Oil |
USO |
oil |
Warnaco Group |
WRC |
clothing |
Ventas |
VTR |
health care REIT |
Post Properties |
PPS |
retail REIT |
Expedia |
EXPE |
online travel |
Hearst-Argyle |
HTV |
media |
McCormick & Sch |
MSSR |
restaurants |
Ternium |
TX |
heavy equipment |
KMG Chemicals |
KMGB |
agriculture |
McDermott |
MDR |
construction |
Ticketmaster |
TKTM |
tickets |
Eastman Kodak |
EK |
photo equip |
Talbots |
TLB |
clothing |
Ruth's Chris |
RUTH |
restaurants |
U.S. Gasoline |
UGA |
gas |
NVR |
NVR |
homebuilder |
Cummins |
CMI |
diesel |
JDS Uniphase |
JDSU |
technology |
Rick's Cabaret |
RICK |
strip clubs |
Ethan Allen |
ETH |
furniture |
Essex Property |
ESS |
residential REIT |
Dolan Media |
DM |
publishing |
Noble Intl |
NOBL |
auto parts |
Morton's Restaurant |
MRT |
restaurants |
|
|