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This Trade Profits Every Time
By Jeff Clark
October 19, 2007

It was as close to a sure thing as you'll ever find...

Natural gas almost always rallies during the fourth quarter. In fact, this is one of the most consistent and reliable trends I've noticed over my investing career. Just look at this chart...

The exception in the past six years came in 2005, when prices bottomed in June. But even then, natural gas still rallied strongly during the fourth quarter.

This year, the action is similar to what we saw in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2006. Natural gas declined sharply into this fall and settled for a moment around $5.50.

Last month, in the inaugural issue of my Advanced Income advisory, we decided to buy "stock" in natural gas. We bought United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), a natural gas ETF, near the bottom of its historical valuation range... And because we sold call options against the position, we captured an instant 4% "overnight dividend" on the shares. We called it a "no-brainer."

It was a lot like strolling along the sidewalk and looking down to find a bag of $100 bills just sitting there in your path. You might be suspicious at first. After all, how can you be so fortunate? Why didn't somebody notice the bag before you? Are you being set up?

It's natural to doubt the validity of a trade that seems too good to be true. But I've made this trade for each of the past four years, and it's been profitable every single time.

Buy Gas Now

Cashing in on Natural Gas

As it turns out, natural gas did exactly what we thought it would do. It went up. Natural gas prices spiked sharply higher – up to $8.50 – and our UNG shares are now trading above the $41 strike price of our call options.

We entered this position for $36.40 just five weeks ago. And we locked in a 12% gain. Not a bad income stream for one month if you ask me.

Good trading,

Jeff Clark

Australia's Richest Man Ignores Mining Companies
Carlyle Group, the world's second-biggest buyout fund, and James Packer, Australia's richest man, may know something other investors don't. Carlyle and Packer bought mine services companies to bet on the commodities boom, ignoring Australia's biggest gainers this year: mining stocks.

"It's an old adage that the guys making money in the gold fields are the shovel sellers," said Ron Cameron, who helps manage A$22.5 billion ($20 billion) at Ord Minnett Ltd., an affiliate of New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Sydney. "Mining services companies get paid on the volume of dirt moved, whereas the miners get paid on the value of the dirt itself." Read on...

Distressed Homeowners Bail on Mortgages
During the height of Las Vegas's real-estate boom two years ago, property investor Rob Rozzen bought 16 homes, hoping that skyrocketing prices would pump up his retirement nest egg.

Now, Mr. Rozzen says he is considering filing for bankruptcy protection. As the housing market slowed, the 40-year-old was unable to sell the homes, and his full-time job as a real-estate agent was no longer able to support mortgage payments totaling $45,000 a month. So one by one, over the past 14 months, Mr. Rozzen has stopped making payments on his investment properties, for which he paid between $226,000 and $390,000, and lenders have foreclosed. WSJ ($) Read on...


Gold approaches $770... streetTRACKS Gold and iShares COMEX Gold Trust hit all-time highs. Hedge funds continue to hold massive long positions.

Dollar hits new low... CurrencyShares Euro Trust hits all-time high.

Homebuilders can't find bottom... D.R. Horton, Centex, Lennar, Beazer Homes, Meritage Homes, Standard Pacific, Brookfield Homes, and Cavalier Homes hit fresh lows.

High-end retailer Nordstrom hits new low.

Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500 1548.71 -0.84% 13.41%
Oil (USO) 65.89 2.95% 22.81%
Gold (GLD) 75.14 0.74% 28.29%
Silver (SLV) 136.90 -0.36% 17.61%
US Dollar 78.05 -0.18% -10.41%
Euro 1.421 0.23% 13.50%
VIX 17.73 -6.09% 59.87%
HUI 413.34 0.70% 40.30%
10-year yield 4.69% 0.03 -0.09
Company Sym Industry

Wrigley

WWY

candy

Suncor Energy

SU

oil & gas

Excel Maritime

EXM

shipping

Telefonica

TEF

telecom

Golden Telecom

GLDN

telecom

Baxter

BAX

medical equip

Diageo

DEO

booze

Barnes Group

B

industrial equip

Syngenta

SYT

agriculture

Navios Maritime

NM

shipping

Distribucion y Servicio

DYS

Chilean grocer

Portugal Telecom

PT

telecom

Hilton

HLT

hotels

BCE

BCE

telecom

Steel Dynamics

STLD

steel

Adobe

ADBE

software

Canadian Nat Res

CNQ

oil & gas

Rick's Cabaret

RICK

strip clubs

Humana

HUM

healthcare

Diana Shipping

DSX

shipping

Lyondell Chemicals

LYO

chemicals

Alcan

AL

aluminum

Richmont Mines

RIC

gold

streetTRACKS Gold

GLD

gold ETF

Calavo Growers

CVGW

avocados

Textron

TXT

conglomerate

FLIR Systems

FLIR

infrared

iShares COMEX Gold

IAU

gold ETF

France Telecom

FTE

telecom

CurrencyShares Euro

FXE

currency ETF

Advertisement
Company Sym Industry

Citigroup

C

bank

Arkansas Best

ABFS

trucking

Nordstrom

JWN

department store

Meritage Homes

MTH

homebuilder

Home Depot

HD

home supplies

CEC Entertainment

CEC

restaurants

Beazer Homes

BZH

homebuilder

J.C. Penney

JCP

department store

Finish Line

FINL

shoes

Centex

CTX

homebuilder

P.F. Chang's

PFCB

restaurants

Hershey

HSY

chocolate

Lennar

LEN

homebuilder

Heartland Express

HTLD

trucking

Washington Mutual

WM

bank

Freddie Mac

FRE

mortgages

Brunswick

BC

boats

Cavalier Homes

CAV

manuf homes

Gannett

GCI

newspapers

Foot Locker

FL

shoes

Saia

SAIA

trucking

D.R. Horton

DHI

homebuilder

Liz Claiborne

LIZ

clothing

California Pizza Kitchen

CPKI

restaurants

Retail Ventures

RVI

retail

New York Times

NYT

newspaper

SunTrust

STI

bank

McClatchy

MNI

newspapers

Walgreen

WAG

drug store

Brookfield Homes

BHS

homebuilder

Standard Pacific

SPF

homebuilder

Bob Evans

BOBE

restaurants

Knight Transportation

KNX

trucking

Progressive

PGR

insurance

USA Truck

USAK

trucking

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