This Trade Profits Every Time
By Jeff Clark
October 19, 2007
It was as close to a sure thing as you'll ever find...
Natural gas almost always rallies during the fourth quarter. In fact, this is one of the most consistent and reliable trends I've noticed over my investing career. Just look at this chart...

The exception in the past six years came in 2005, when prices bottomed in June. But even then, natural gas still rallied strongly during the fourth quarter.
This year, the action is similar to what we saw in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2006. Natural gas declined sharply into this fall and settled for a moment around $5.50.
Last month, in the inaugural issue of my Advanced Income advisory, we decided to buy "stock" in natural gas. We bought United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), a natural gas ETF, near the bottom of its historical valuation range... And because we sold call options against the position, we captured an instant 4% "overnight dividend" on the shares. We called it a "no-brainer."
It was a lot like strolling along the sidewalk and looking down to find a bag of $100 bills just sitting there in your path. You might be suspicious at first. After all, how can you be so fortunate? Why didn't somebody notice the bag before you? Are you being set up?
It's natural to doubt the validity of a trade that seems too good to be true. But I've made this trade for each of the past four years, and it's been profitable every single time.
As it turns out, natural gas did exactly what we thought it would do. It went up. Natural gas prices spiked sharply higher – up to $8.50 – and our UNG shares are now trading above the $41 strike price of our call options.
We entered this position for $36.40 just five weeks ago. And we locked in a 12% gain. Not a bad income stream for one month if you ask me.
Good trading,
Jeff Clark
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Australia's Richest Man Ignores Mining Companies
Carlyle Group, the world's second-biggest buyout fund, and James Packer, Australia's richest man, may know something other investors don't. Carlyle and Packer bought mine services companies to bet on the commodities boom, ignoring Australia's biggest gainers this year: mining stocks.
"It's an old adage that the guys making money in the gold fields are the shovel sellers," said Ron Cameron, who helps manage A$22.5 billion ($20 billion) at Ord Minnett Ltd., an affiliate of New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Sydney. "Mining services companies get paid on the volume of dirt moved, whereas the miners get paid on the value of the dirt itself." Read on...
Distressed Homeowners Bail on Mortgages
During the height of Las Vegas's real-estate boom two years ago, property investor Rob Rozzen bought 16 homes, hoping that skyrocketing prices would pump up his retirement nest egg.
Now, Mr. Rozzen says he is considering filing for bankruptcy protection. As the housing market slowed, the 40-year-old was unable to sell the homes, and his full-time job as a real-estate agent was no longer able to support mortgage payments totaling $45,000 a month. So one by one, over the past 14 months, Mr. Rozzen has stopped making payments on his investment properties, for which he paid between $226,000 and $390,000, and lenders have foreclosed. WSJ ($) Read on...
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Gold approaches $770... streetTRACKS Gold and iShares COMEX Gold Trust hit all-time highs. Hedge funds continue to hold massive long positions. |
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Dollar hits new low... CurrencyShares Euro Trust hits all-time high. |
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Homebuilders can't find bottom... D.R. Horton, Centex, Lennar, Beazer Homes, Meritage Homes, Standard Pacific, Brookfield Homes, and Cavalier Homes hit fresh lows. |
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High-end retailer Nordstrom hits new low. |
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Last |
Change |
52-Wk |
| S&P 500 |
1548.71 |
-0.84% |
13.41% |
| Oil (USO) |
65.89 |
2.95% |
22.81% |
| Gold (GLD) |
75.14 |
0.74% |
28.29% |
| Silver (SLV) |
136.90 |
-0.36% |
17.61% |
| US Dollar |
78.05 |
-0.18% |
-10.41% |
| Euro |
1.421 |
0.23% |
13.50% |
| VIX |
17.73 |
-6.09% |
59.87% |
| HUI |
413.34 |
0.70% |
40.30% |
| 10-year yield |
4.69% |
0.03 |
-0.09 |
| Company |
Sym |
Industry |
Wrigley |
WWY |
candy |
Suncor Energy |
SU |
oil & gas |
Excel Maritime |
EXM |
shipping |
Telefonica |
TEF |
telecom |
Golden Telecom |
GLDN |
telecom |
Baxter |
BAX |
medical equip |
Diageo |
DEO |
booze |
Barnes Group |
B |
industrial equip |
Syngenta |
SYT |
agriculture |
Navios Maritime |
NM |
shipping |
Distribucion y Servicio |
DYS |
Chilean grocer |
Portugal Telecom |
PT |
telecom |
Hilton |
HLT |
hotels |
BCE |
BCE |
telecom |
Steel Dynamics |
STLD |
steel |
Adobe |
ADBE |
software |
Canadian Nat Res |
CNQ |
oil & gas |
Rick's Cabaret |
RICK |
strip clubs |
Humana |
HUM |
healthcare |
Diana Shipping |
DSX |
shipping |
Lyondell Chemicals |
LYO |
chemicals |
Alcan |
AL |
aluminum |
Richmont Mines |
RIC |
gold |
streetTRACKS Gold |
GLD |
gold ETF |
Calavo Growers |
CVGW |
avocados |
Textron |
TXT |
conglomerate |
FLIR Systems |
FLIR |
infrared |
iShares COMEX Gold |
IAU |
gold ETF |
France Telecom |
FTE |
telecom |
CurrencyShares Euro |
FXE |
currency ETF |
|
| Company |
Sym |
Industry |
Citigroup |
C |
bank |
Arkansas Best |
ABFS |
trucking |
Nordstrom |
JWN |
department store |
Meritage Homes |
MTH |
homebuilder |
Home Depot |
HD |
home supplies |
CEC Entertainment |
CEC |
restaurants |
Beazer Homes |
BZH |
homebuilder |
J.C. Penney |
JCP |
department store |
Finish Line |
FINL |
shoes |
Centex |
CTX |
homebuilder |
P.F. Chang's |
PFCB |
restaurants |
Hershey |
HSY |
chocolate |
Lennar |
LEN |
homebuilder |
Heartland Express |
HTLD |
trucking |
Washington Mutual |
WM |
bank |
Freddie Mac |
FRE |
mortgages |
Brunswick |
BC |
boats |
Cavalier Homes |
CAV |
manuf homes |
Gannett |
GCI |
newspapers |
Foot Locker |
FL |
shoes |
Saia |
SAIA |
trucking |
D.R. Horton |
DHI |
homebuilder |
Liz Claiborne |
LIZ |
clothing |
California Pizza Kitchen |
CPKI |
restaurants |
Retail Ventures |
RVI |
retail |
New York Times |
NYT |
newspaper |
SunTrust |
STI |
bank |
McClatchy |
MNI |
newspapers |
Walgreen |
WAG |
drug store |
Brookfield Homes |
BHS |
homebuilder |
Standard Pacific |
SPF |
homebuilder |
Bob Evans |
BOBE |
restaurants |
Knight Transportation |
KNX |
trucking |
Progressive |
PGR |
insurance |
USA Truck |
USAK |
trucking |
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