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Tuesday November 20, 2007
The Only Market Indicator With 100% Accuracy
By Jeff Clark

The stock market may not have hit bottom just yet, but it's close – really close.

I'm certain of it. A whole host of technical indicators are now at levels that typically occur at market bottoms. For example, take a look at this chart of the Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index...

This chart basically measures the percentage of Nasdaq stocks trading in an uptrend. The current reading of just over 32 is within the range where this indicator has bottomed during every correction over the past four years.

Another good sign was the relative strength of Merrill Lynch (MER) shares midway through trading yesterday. As the major market averages were pounding out new lows on the day, MER was actually gaining strength. It's true that MER closed down more than two points, but that was well off its early morning lows.

As we've written about so often in Growth Stock Wire, MER is a good leading indicator of immediate market direction. That the stock closed off its lows while the rest of the market was falling is a good indication that the broad-based selling may be coming to an end.

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-----------------------------------

These two indicators, along with dozens of others, are suggesting the current bout of selling is a bit overdone and we're on the verge of a pretty good rally phase.

But the single best indicator... the technical gauge with a 100% accuracy rating... the infallible market barometer that only flashes signals once every year or two... was waiting for me on my answering machine when I arrived home yesterday afternoon:

"Hi Jeff. It's Mom. Could you please call me back and let me know what the heck you think is going on in the stock market. I'm thinking of just selling everything. Bye."

I've written before about the "Mother Indicator." Mom is the perfect example of an individual investor. She's smart. She does her homework. She studies and examines every investment before she buys. And then she succumbs to the emotions of fear and greed just like everyone else.

Mom is an excellent contrary indicator. Over the years, I've learned that it's best to sell when Mom is looking to buy. And it's best to buy when Mom is looking to sell.

At the end of the day yesterday, Mom wanted to sell. And, that can only mean one thing...

It's time to start buying.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

Billionaires Say Auto Industry Will Hit 15-Year Low
Three top investors in the automotive industry painted a grim picture on Sunday for the sector in 2008, with one executive predicting a possible slump in U.S. sales to levels not seen in 15 years.

The weakest forecast is for a possible 9.4 percent decline. But all three – Jerry York, an adviser to billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian; financier Wilbur Ross; and Thomas Stallkamp, a former Chrysler president – were more pessimistic than many in the battered industry. Read on...

Zimbabwe Offers Inflation, Corruption... and Growth
Zimbabwe is an economic nightmare. The annual inflation rate is 8,000% and rising. People don't have food to eat.

Yet investors have started pouring millions of dollars into the country. Foreign direct investment has rebounded, reaching $103 million in 2005, up from just $4 million in 2003, according to the most recent figures available from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. WSJ ($) Read on...

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Can the British Government Pay for your Retirement?
Thanks to the good will and deep pockets of the British National Gov't, there's an easy way for Americans like you and me to have all the money we need for retirement - without ever leaving home or stepping foot overseas. Read on...


General Motors hits new low... down 35% since October.

Carl Icahn beats the market... holding company Icahn Enterprises hits all-time high.

Fashion stocks continue slide... J.C. Penney, Nordstrom, Dillard's, Liz Claiborne, Limited Brands, and Phillips-Van Heusen at new lows.

Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500 1433.27 -1.75% 2.29%
Oil (USO) 74.49 0.80% 46.23%
Gold (GLD) 77.24 -0.66% 25.02%
Silver (SLV) 140.71 -1.88% 10.24%
US Dollar 75.79 -0.01% -11.16%
Euro 1.466 0.04% 14.21%
VIX 26.01 2.04% 158.81%
HUI 398.22 -3.35% 24.97%
10-year yield 4.08% -0.07 -0.53
Company Sym Industry

Carolina Group

CG cigarettes

France Telecom

FTE telecom

Canadian Solar

CSIQ solar power

EnerSys

ENS batteries

Coca-Cola

KO beverages

Avon Products

AVP beauty products

Deutsche Telekom

DT telecom

FTI Consulting

FCN consulting

Astronics

ATRO aerospace

Intl Shipholding

ISH shipping

McKesson

MCK pharma

URS

URS engineering

Mesa Royalty

MTR oil trust

Procter & Gamble

PG conglomerate

Veolia Enviro.

VE utilities

Unilever

UL conglomerate

VeriSign

VRSN internet security

Icahn Enterprises

IEP holding company
Company Sym Industry

Teekay LNG

TGP

shipping

Cintas

CTAS

uniforms

Jarden

JAH

home products

Liz Claiborne

LIZ

clothing

Carlisle Co

CSL

construction mat

Borders Group

BGP

book

Freddie Mac

FRE

mortgages

Arkansas Best

ABFS

trucking

Jones Lang LaSal

JLL

real estate

Granite Construct

GVA

construction

Brown Shoe Co

BWS

shoes

Sun Communities

SUI

REIT

A.O. Smith

AOS

industrial equip

Gannett

GCI

newspapers

S&P Homebuilders

XHB

ETF

FedEx

FDX

shipping

Blockbuster

BBI

video rentals

Legg Mason

LM

asset mgmt

Heartland Express

HTLD

trucking

GlaxoSmithKline

GSK

Big Pharma

Big Lots

BIG

discount retail

Limited Brands

LTD

clothing

Cosi

COSI

restaurants

Lennar

LEN

homebuilder

Brookdale Senior

BKD

senior living

General Motors

GM

automobiles

Triarc

TRY

restaurants

Citadel Broadcast

CDL

radio

Intl Speedway

ISCA

motorsports

Boston Scientific

BSX

medical equip

Circuit City

CC

electronics

Brinker Intl

EAT

restaurants

P.F. Chang's

PFCB

restaurants

DuPont

DD

chemicals

J.C. Penney

JCP

department store

Caribou Coffee

CBOU

coffee

Panera

PNRA

restaurants

Orleans Homebuild

OHS

homebuilder

Monaco Coach

MNC

RVs

Westlake Chem

WLK

chemicals

Cousins Property

CUZ

REIT

Dollar Tree Store

DLTR

dollar stores

Friedman Billings

FBR

mortgages

Crucell

CRXL

biotech

Nordstrom

JWN

department store

Gehl

GEHL

farm machinery

USG

USG

drywall

Dillard's

DDS

department store

Oshkosh Truck

OSK

trucking

Ryder

R

truck rental

Credit Suisse

CS

bank

Bemis

BMS

packaging

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