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Thursday November 15, 2007

The One Number You Need to Know for Christmas
By Jeff Clark

WOW, what a bounce!

Tuesday's rally was just what the bulls needed. The Dow was up more than 300 points. The S&P gained 40 points. And the Nasdaq Composite led the charge by tacking on 90 points, or roughly 3.5%.

It was the best day for stocks since the Fed rescued the markets back on September 19. And the folks over at CNBC were about as giddy as drunken trophy wives at a Tiffany half-off sale.

I was pretty pleased with the rally too. But before we go celebrating the arrival of the Santa Claus rally – the seasonally bullish move that almost always happens this time of yearthere are two things to take note of...

First off, Tuesday's rally merely brought the major market averages back to where they closed last Thursday. Yes, it was a good move – but it's not even close to recovering the bulk of the damage done so far this month.

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More importantly, it's not the strength of the bounce that matters... it's the weakness of the next decline.

As you can see from the following chart, the S&P 500 is still pounding out a series of lower highs and lower lows…

This is a bearish pattern and can only turn bullish once the index pulls back and makes a higher low.

So, even though Tuesday's bounce was a nice gift for the bulls, the Grinch is still in charge of Wall Street. And he can steal the presents – just as he did on Wednesday, when the market erased a nice 50-point gap at the opening and closed down almost 100 points.

The Ghost of Christmas Past

How To Capture a Fast 20% This Month

If you want to know when Santa is ready to hop in his sleigh and head out to Manhattan, then keep an eye on the 1,440 level of the S&P 500. If the next decline takes the index below that level, then the year-end rally will be late this year.

On the other hand, if 1,440 holds, then get out your stockings and hang them on the chimney, 'cause Santa Claus is coming to town.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

How a Few Big Banks Skirted the Subprime Mess
The mortgage maelstrom that has been swirling around Wall Street has left few bright spots and a number of casualties. But a handful of firms have managed to stand out.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. remains an investment star. Deutsche Bank AG has lowered its exposure to risky bets that have hit its rivals. And Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. appears to be in relatively safe territory. WSJ ($) Read on...

Mortgage Fraud Starts in Miami
At first glance, the 43-story building in Miami's international banking district seems little different from other high-rise condominiums overlooking the turquoise waters of Biscayne Bay.

But the 643-unit condo known as the Club at Brickell is a leader in mortgage foreclosures and it appears also to stand at ground zero in a blizzard of fraud that may lie behind many of the failed loans threatening to bury the U.S. property market.
Read on...

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Non-cyclicals thrive... Mega-conglomerates Unilever and Colgate-Palmolive at all-time highs.

World's largest water stock, Veolia Environnement at new all-time high.

Commercial real estate firms CB Richard Ellis and Grubb & Ellis at fresh lows.

Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500 1470.58 -0.71% 5.55%
Oil (USO) 72.60 2.35% 39.24%
Gold (GLD) 80.28 1.47% 30.26%
Silver (SLV) 148.67 2.81% 16.37%
US Dollar 75.84 0.27% -11.12%
Euro 1.465 -0.02% 14.38%
VIX 25.94 7.63% 147.05%
HUI 423.49 1.44% 29.03%
10-year yield 4.27% 0.01 -0.30
Company Sym Industry

Charles Schwab

SCHW

online brokerage

MedCo Health

MHS

pharma services

Fossil

FOSL

watches

Turkcell

TKC

telecom

Bally

BYI

gaming machines

Fushi Intl

FSIN

metallic wires

Novo Nordisk

NVO

Big Pharma

Carolina Group

CG

cigarettes

Wimm-Bill-Dann

WBD

beverages

Hewitt Associates

HEW

outsourcing

Cellcom Israel

CEL

telecom

Randgold Res

GOLD

gold

Veolia Environ

VE

utilities

Deutsche Tele

DT

telecom

GFI Group

GFIG

brokerage

Votorantim Cel

VCP

paper products

Colgate-Palmolive

CL

conglomerate

T. Rowe Price

TROW

asset mgmt

Unilever

UN

conglomerate

Mesa Royalty

MTR

oil trust

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Company Sym Industry

Pacific Ethanol

PEIX

ethanol

Natl Beverage

FIZZ

beverages

Avery Dennison

AVY

paper products

Golfsmith

GOLF

sporting goods

CB Richard Ellis

CBG

real estate

La-Z-Boy

LZB

recliners

Brookdale Senior

BKD

senior living

Pilgrims Pride

PPD

meat products

Grubb & Ellis

GBE

real estate

U.S. Concrete

RMIX

cement

TravelCenters

TA

travel centers

Mexco Energy

MXC

oil & gas

Tandy Brands

TBAC

fashion access

United Rentals

URI

equip rental

Investment Advice from a Chicago Pimp
November 14, 2007

How To Capture a Fast 20% This Month
November 13, 2007

How To Cash in on China's $200 Billion Development Check
November 12, 2007

Weekend Edition: The Best of The S&A Digest
November 10, 2007

Where to Find Government-Approved 15% Interest Rates
November 9, 2007

Why The Nasdaq 100 Could Collapse By December
November 8, 2007

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