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Monday November 12, 2007

How to Cash in on China's $200 Billion Development Check
By Graham Summers

Have you ever heard of Chongqing?

In the 1930s, you couldn't walk into the lobby of a decent Manhattan hotel without seeing lobby clocks displaying the time zone for Chongqing (or Chungking, as it was known in the States at the time), alongside London and Paris.

In the second Sino-Japanese war, Chongqing was designated China's wartime capital. Situated 1,500 miles inland, the city perches on a 750-foot high rock between the Yangtze and Jialing rivers (which can rise as much as 40 feet in a single night). Chongqing is unassailable by land or water, and fog blankets the area eight months out of the year.

Unfortunately for the city, Japan had plenty of airplanes. And as soon as the fog cleared in May 1939, the land of the rising sun set about bombing Chongqing back to the Stone Age. Despite evacuations, 750,000 citizens were running for cover on the first day the bombs fell. Fewer than one in four made it to bomb shelters.

The Japanese staged a total of 268 air raids on the city, making Chongqing the most bombed city of World War II. Residents who didn't flee the bombs could no longer live in the city, as food prices skyrocketed. At one point, eggs jumped from $0.29 to $9.60 a dozen. People began to starve.

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By the time the war ended, Chongqing had gone from international capital to industrial wasteland. Mining and trade stopped dead. The city's economy came to a virtual standstill. Eventually, even native mainland Chinese had all but forgotten it...

Today, rebuilding and modernizing Chongqing as rapidly as possible has become China's top priority. The leadership in Beijing sent party officials responsible for Shanghai's economic boom to Chongqing, along with a virtual blank check ($200 billion) and an official mandate to "spend whatever it takes."

"We're spending more than $1 billion – every month. We'll spend like this for another 10 years," says one of Chongqing's senior urban planners.

Altogether, 207 projects are expected to come on line in the next 15 years. Manufacturing to construction is exploding there. The municipality plans to build more than 4,000 miles of highways alone. Last year, some 300,000 cars were manufactured in Chongqing. That number is expected to double in the next three years and triple by 2010.

Investors who get in early have a veritable smorgasbord of opportunities. Every infrastructure sector you can think of – power generation, construction, water treatment, road paving – is booming in Chongqing. So are the commodities businesses: cement producers, steel producers, even mining companies that supply raw materials.

Investing in Chongqing today is like investing in Chicago in 1850. You're able to get in on what will soon be China's hub city between its east and its west. There are two safe ways we can profit:

1. Invest in U.S. businesses that already have a presence in the region.
2. Invest with the Chinese entrepreneurs with government connections.

I'm headed to China in early December with stops in Chongqing, Beijing, and Shanghai. I'll let you know what I find.

Good trading,

Graham

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Wannabe Rich Can't Keep Up
Though the luxury sector is expected to put in another strong performance this season, the lower end of that market – selling so-called affordable luxury to aspirational buyers – is starting to feel the pinch of the weak economy... Only the most elite brands and the retailers catering to the richest customers are likely to escape unscathed.

Yesterday Nordstrom Inc. reported a rare 2.4% drop in October same-store sales, steeper than the 1% decline many analysts had expected. Morgan Stanley analyst Michelle Clark this week downgraded Nordstrom's shares to "underweight," the equivalent of a sell rating, citing weaker spending by the affluent middle class, rising credit-card delinquencies and the luxury retailer's exposure to risky housing markets in California and elsewhere. WSJ ($) Read on...

Homebuilder Blames Media for Troubles
The housing market is horrible in most parts of the country, says the chief executive of the luxury home builder Toll Brothers, and he fears it will not get better until the newspapers stop saying how bad it is.

Toll Brothers, which has operations in 22 states, said yesterday that it expected to take a write-down of $250 million to $450 million because of declining land values when it reports results for the quarter that ended Oct. 31. The company said sales for the quarter fell 36 percent, to $1.17 billion, and that customers backed out of 39 percent of their orders, the highest rate ever. Read on...

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The poor get poorer... 99 Cents Only, Family Dollar, and Dollar Tree at new lows... UltraShort Consumer ETF at all-time high.

Government-backed mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at fresh lows... Merrill Lynch, UBS, Wachovia, SunTrust, Bear Stearns, Credit Cuisse, and Barclays follow.

Freight slowdown... truck stop TravelCenters of America hits all-time low.

World's largest commercial real estate firm, CB Richard Ellis plunges.

Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500 1475.62 -2.94% 6.71%
Oil (USO) 74.48 -1.14% 41.60%
Gold (GLD) 82.24 0.99% 32.56%
Silver (SLV) 151.71 -1.33% 20.45%
US Dollar 75.48 -0.14% -11.60%
Euro 1.466 0.13% 14.73%
VIX 26.49 23.84% 138.86%
HUI 447.90 -1.76% 36.25%
10-year yield 4.33% -0.02 -0.33
Company Sym Industry

Priceline

PCLN

online travel

Dolby Labs

DLB

electronics

AGCO

AG

farm machinery

Rio Tinto

RTP

steel

Turkcell

TKC

telecom

U.S. Consumer

SCC

ETF

Sasol

SSL

petrochemicals

Hutchinson Tech

HTCH

disk drives

CS Yen

FXY

ETF

Mesa Royalty Tr

MTR

oil trust

Deutsche Telekom

DT

telecom

Company Sym Industry

Merrill Lynch

MER

bank

WCI Comm

WCI

homebuilder

Charles & Colvard

CTHR

moissanite

Pool Corp

POOL

pools

99 Cents Only

NDN

dollar stores

Apartment Invest

AIV

REIT

SunTrust

SNI

bank

McClatchy

MNI

newspaper

Comcast

CMCSA

cable

JetBlue

JBLU

airline

Six Flags

SIX

amusement parks

M/I Homes

MHO

homebuilder

Barclays

BCS

bank

Kohl's

KSS

department store

Casual Male

CMRG

clothing

UBS

UBS

bank

Ultra Consumer

UCC

ETF

Caribou Coffee

CBOU

coffee

Freddie Mac

FRE

mortgages

Staples

SPLS

office supplies

Jos. A. Bank

JOSB

clothing

Landry's

LNY

restaurants

Time Warner

TWX

media

Arlington Tankers

ATB

shipping

Heelys

HLYS

roller shoes

CB Richard Ellis

CBG

real estate

Eli Lilly

LLY

Big Pharma

Starbucks

SBUX

coffee

Coinstar

CSTR

coin machines

Bed Bath & Bey

BBBY

home supplies

Eddie Bauer

EBHI

clothing

TravelCenters

TA

travel centers

California Pizza

CPKI

restaurants

World Fuel Service

INT

fuel sales

Ruth's Chris

RUTH

steakhouse

Delta Financial

DFC

mortgages

Big Lots

BIG

discount retail

Tootsie Roll

TR

candy

Fannie Mae

FNM

mortgages

Nordstrom

JWN

department store

Home Depot

HD

home supplies

Chico's

CHS

clothing

Legg Mason

LM

asset mgmt

Marriott

MAR

hotels

Bear Stearns

BSC

bank

Shoe Carnival

SCVL

shoes

Virgin Media

VMED

cable

Pacific Ethanol

PEIX

ethanol

Dollar Tree

DLTR

dollar stores

E*TRADE

ETFC

online broker

Credit Suisse

CS

bank

Lennar

LEN

homebuilder

Select Comfort

SCSS

mattresses

Jones Soda

JSDA

beverages

Crucell

CRXL

biotech

Granite Construct

GVA

construction

Ross

ROST

discount retail

Family Dollar

FDO

dollar stores

Brinker Intl

EAT

restaurants

Sprint Nextel

S

telecom

Wachovia

WB

bank

Great Wolf

WOLF

resorts

S&P Homebuilder

XHB

ETF

Where to Find Government-Approved 15% Interest Rates
November 9, 2007

Why The Nasdaq 100 Could Collapse By December
November 8, 2007

Why Your Mutual Fund Stinks
November 7, 2007

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