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The Hottest Stock for Activist Investors
By Graham Summers
June 18, 2007

In April, we commented on a terrific irony: value legends buying big telecom stocks.

Seeing companies like Soros, Dreman, and Hawkins holding Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint Nextel gives me the chuckles. Only seven years ago, those guys wouldn't have bought such stocks unless you put a gun to their heads. Yet today, they're putting hundreds of millions of dollars into big telecom.

And as further proof that you can make money simply by following these guys into their investments, consider that AT&T, Sprint Nextel, and Verizon have risen 3%, 7%, and 14% respectively since our essay.

None of the investors involved in these companies are traders – perhaps with the exception of Soros. To see them investing this much money into the sector augurs a long-term bullish trend in telecom stocks. Verizon and Sprint are still trading for five times cash flow. Aside from being phenomenally cheap from a universal standpoint, this is half the industry average for the multiple.

Simply put, both companies have a long way to rise before they're overvalued. And while we've already seen some quick gains in the last month and a half, it might be years before we see a double.

Which is why I suggest you have a look at cell-phone maker Motorola (MOT).

MOT is the second-largest manufacturer of cell phones in the world. It's also the hottest stock on the market for investing legends. The ownership at this company is a veritable who's who of investing gurus:

Investor

Holdings

Carl Icahn

$169 million

Brian Rogers

$126 million

Bill Miller

$72 million

Eddie Lampert

$16 million

George Soros

$2.7 million

David Dreman

$2 million

Richard Pzena

$556,000

The particular names to focus on here are Icahn and Lampert, two of the most famous and successful activist investors on the planet. Both are self-made billionaires: Icahn boasts a $13 billion fortune and Lampert $4.5 billion. Both are brilliant investors: Lampert has averaged 25% a year for nearly 20 years; Icahn's profits from his deals are legendary ($880 million in Time Warner, and $1.5 billion in National Energy, for example).

And both are activist investors who push for greater returns to shareholders.

Icahn is asking MOT to buy back as much as $15 billion worth of stock. The company has already bought back more than $2 billion and allotted another $3 billion for additional share repurchases. When complete, the company will have repurchased 11% of its shares outstanding.

Though he hasn't contacted MOT's board yet, seeing Lampert's name among MOT's holders is particularly exciting. Lampert makes huge bets on very few companies. Altogether, his hedge fund, ESL Investments, has $16 billion in just six stocks: AutoZone, AutoNation, Sears Holdings, Citigroup, Clear Channel, and Motorola.

One thing is for sure, if Icahn and Lampert are involved, you're going to see some fireworks in MOT's share price in the near future.

And because MOT shares have yet to move, you can buy its stock today at the same price Lampert and Icahn did.

Good trading,

Graham

Ethanol Boom Means Business for Monsanto
Monsanto Co., the world's biggest seed producer, boosted its profit forecast for fiscal 2007 as rising demand for ethanol and animal feed led to a surge in U.S. corn planting. The shares rose to a record.

Profit in the year ending Aug. 31 will be $1.75 to $1.80 a share, excluding some items, compared with a previous forecast of $1.60 to $1.65, St. Louis-based Monsanto said today in a statement. Earnings were expected to be $1.69, the average estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Read on...

Milk Heading For Record Highs
Milk, already hovering around $4 a gallon in the Chicago area, could cost as much as $4.25 a gallon to $4.50 a gallon by September.

In Florida, milk is likely to rise to more than $5 a gallon, Bill Brooks, a dairy economist with Downes-O'Neill, one of the nation's largest dairy product brokerage firms, said Thursday.

"We have a new competitor," Brooks told more than 100 people at a conference of producers and processors in Chicago. He said dairy farmers are paying higher prices to feed their cows as a result of ethanol production that depends on corn and other rough grains. "And the government is subsidizing this competitor." Read on...


Intel up 9% on high volume last week.

Big Oil keeps climbing... ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Petrobras, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and Eni all hit 52-week highs.

Oil drillers follow... Norsk Hydro, Helmerich & Payne, Diamond Offshore, Hercules Offshore, GlobalSantaFe, Grey Wolf, and Transocean at new highs.

The war boom continues: Northrop Grumman, Rockwell Collins, Curtiss-Wright, and BE Aerospace surge.

Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500 1534.17 0.74% 22.13%
Oil (USO) 51.52 0.82% -22.13%
Gold (GLD) 64.86 0.40% 13.15%
Silver (SLV) 131.76 0.80% 28.37%
US Dollar 82.85 -0.23% -3.47%
Euro 1.338 0.44% 5.85%
VIX 13.64 -7.40% -36.44%
HUI 330.98 1.54% 18.26%
10-year yield 5.22% 0.02 0.17

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Company Sym Industry

JB Hunt

JBHT

trucking

Norsk Hydro

NHY

oil drilling

Corn Products Intl

CPO

food products

AutoZone

AZO

auto parts

Halliburton

HAL

oil services

ConocoPhillips

COP

Big Oil

Northrop Grumman

NOC

aerospace

Alcoa

AA

aluminum

Carolina Group

CG

cigarettes

Marathon Oil

MRO

oil & gas

Garmin

GRMN

GPS

BG Group

BRG

natural gas

Vail Resorts

MTN

resorts

Hercules Offshore

HERO

oil drilling

Comp de Bebidas

ABV

beer

Martin Marietta

MLM

materials

Helmerich & Payne

HP

oil drilling

GlobalSantaFe

GSF

oil drilling

Churchill Downs

CHDN

horse racing

Align Tech

ALGN

medical equip

CBOT Holdings

BOT

trading exchange

Baker Hughes

BHI

oil services

Monsanto

MON

agriculture

Grey Wolf

GW

oil drilling

Caterpillar

CAT

industrial equip

Anglo American

AAUK

mining

CNOOC

CEO

oil & gas

Morgan Stanley

MS

investment bank

ExxonMobil

XOM

Big Oil

Rockwell Collins

COL

aerospace

Bayer

BAY

Big Pharma

Nokia

NOK

cell phones

Apache

APA

oil & gas

Cemex

CX

cement

Clear Channel

CCU

broadcasting

Burger King

BKC

fast food

Natl Oilwell Varco

NOV

oil services

Corning

GLW

technology

Diamonds Trust

DIA

Dow ETF

Schlumberger

SLB

oil services

ABB

ABB

electrical equip

Eddie Bauer

EBHI

clothing

Gerdau

GGB

steel

Eastman Kodak

EK

photo equipment

Occidental Petro

OXY

oil & gas

AGCO

AG

farm machinery

Expedia

EXPE

online travel

POSCO

PKX

steel

Total

TOT

Big Oil

EnCana

ECA

oil & gas

Petrobras

PBR

Big Oil

Gen-Probe

GPRO

med research

Aluminum of China

ACH

aluminum

Siemens

SI

conglomerate

Holly

HOC

refining

Taiwan Fund

TWN

Taiwan ETF

Pogo Producing

PPP

oil & gas

Curtiss-Wright

CW

aerospace

Freeport McMoRan

FCX

copper & gold

Dollar General

DG

discount retail

Eni

E

Big Oil

Family Dollar

FDO

discount retail

Royal Dutch Shell

RDS-A

Big Oil

Anadarko Petro

APC

oil & gas

Diamond Offshore

DO

oil drilling

Intel

INTC

semiconductors

Humboldt Wedag

KHDH

holding co

MasterCard

MA

credit cards

Transocean

RIG

oil drilling

BE Aerospace

BEAV

aerospace

McDonald's

MCD

fast food

Sunoco

SUN

refining

Company Sym Industry

Media General

MEG

newspaper

McClatchy

MNI

newspaper

Cost Plus

CPWM

dept store

Particle Drilling

PDRT

oil services

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