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Why I Hate Bonds
By Jeff Clark
June 15, 2007

It's been a tough month for fixed-income investors.

Interest rates have spiked sharply higher over the past few weeks, and bonds and bond mutual funds have fallen sharply as a result.

Take a look at this chart of one of the most widely followed bond ETFs, the Lehman 20+ year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT):

I think investors who bought bonds and bond funds for income and safety of principal are going to be surprised when they open their statements this month and find that they're down 6% or more.

It's a common misconception that bonds are safer and less volatile than stocks. If you take another look at the chart above, you'll likely agree that TLT is at least as volatile as any stock you own.

The best time to own bonds is when interest rates are high and are moving lower. As interest rates drop, bond prices go up, and investors capture capital gains along with their high interest payments. It's the best of both worlds.

But that hasn't been the case in the United States for at least the last four years.

When the Fed started raising interest rates in 2003, it was the first signal to get out of the bond market. You see, as interest rates go up, bond prices fall (as evidenced over the past six weeks).

It's one thing to buy a bond at 8% or 9% and lock in a high yield as the Fed is lowering rates. It's quite another to tie up long-term money at 5% when the Fed is tightening rates.

Of course, the Fed has been tightening rates for several years now, and bond prices have held up quite well. Investors have been collecting their 5% interest checks and the principal has held steady – well, until recently that is.

The 6% drop over the past six weeks is just the beginning. The tone of the interest rate market is changing. And, while we might see a small bounce in the bond market to counter the extreme move of the past few weeks, bond prices are headed lower – possibly much lower.

So what's a fixed-income investor to do?

There's only one fixed-income strategy that consistently makes money in a rising interest rate environment. It's a simple strategy called covered call writing.

You may have heard of this strategy before. You may have even attempted covered call writing before. Lots of people have.

There is, however, a right way and a wrong way to sell covered calls... And, from what I saw during my 22-year career in the brokerage business, most people do it the wrong way.

Next Tuesday, I'll show you the correct way to generate income by selling covered calls. It's safer than buying bonds and it pays a lot better too.

Until then...

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

Oil Demand Rising Fast
World oil demand is rising faster than previously expected while non-Opec supply is growing more slowly, the International Energy Agency has said in its latest monthly assessment of the market.

The rich countries' energy watchdog warned on Tuesday of growing tightness in oil supplies in the second half of the year, and urged the Organisation of the Petrolem Exporting Countries to raise its output. Read on...

Detroit Auto Industry in Crisis-Mode Again
Detroit's Big Three, facing their worst crisis in decades, are seeking unprecedented concessions from the United Auto Workers union in a bid to narrow what they say is a $30-an-hour labor-cost disadvantage against Asian rivals like Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., auto executives say.

The unusually tough stance by General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group marks their latest attempt to stanch heavy losses in their North American auto operations. It also sets up a potential showdown with the UAW – which has a 70-year history of winning progressively richer contracts for its members – as the two sides prepare for contract talks that start this summer. WSJ ($) Read on...


Semiconductor leader Intel breaks out to new 52-week high.

Energy stocks regain market lead... ExxonMobil, Petrobras, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, Anadarko, Apache, Carrizo, Cabot, Occidental, Schlumberger, Grant Prideco, Transocean, and Contango reach new highs.

Sin stocks reach new highs... Boston Beer (Sam Adams), Comp de Bebidas (largest LatAm brewer), Vector Group (cigarettes), and Carolina Group (cigarettes).

Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500 1524.67 0.59% 23.95%
Oil (USO) 51.12 2.06% -22.30%
Gold (GLD) 64.54 0.02% 16.04%
Silver (SLV) 130.86 0.16% 35.33%
US Dollar 83.12 0.08% -3.39%
Euro 1.331 -0.03% 5.51%
VIX 14.73 -11.64% -38.14%
HUI 325.97 1.38% 19.08%
10-year yield 5.20% -0.05 0.24

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Company Sym Industry

McDonald's

MCD

fast food

Corn Products Intl

CPO

food products

Vector Group

VGR

cigarettes

Freeport McMoRan

FCX

copper

Eni

E

Big Oil

Anadarko Petro

APC

oil & gas

Martin Marietta

MLM

mining

BHP Billiton

BHP

mining

Comp de Bebidas

ABV

beer

Eaton Vance

EV

asset mgmt

POSCO

PKX

steel

Gen-Probe

GPRO

med research

Carolina Group

CG

cigarettes

Grant Prideco

GRP

oil services

Berry Petro

BRY

oil & gas

Apache

APA

oil & gas

Joy Global

JOYG

heavy equip

Dollar General

DG

discount retail

Blue Chip Value

BLU

ETF

Holly

HOC

refining

Global Industries

GLBL

construction

Breeze-Eastern

BZC

defense prod

Air Products & Chem

APD

chemicals

Cost-U-Less

CULS

discount retail

Gerdau

GGB

steel

Cooper Industries

CBE

conglomerates

Cabot

COG

oil & gas

Humboldt Wedag

KHDH

holding company

Petrobras

PBR

Big Oil

AGCO

AG

farm machinery

Pioneer Natl Res

PXD

oil & gas

CNOOC

CEO

oil & gas

BG Group

BRG

natural gas

Advanced Semi

ASX

semiconductors

Schlumberger

SLB

oil services

Carrizo

CRZO

oil & gas

Petrohawk

HK

oil & gas

Eastman Kodak

EK

cameras

Contango

MCF

oil & gas

Garmin

GRMN

GPS

Kennametal

KMT

small tools

Cheniere Energy

LNG

oil drilling

Quicksilver

KWK

clothing

Madeco

MAD

copper

Potash Sask

POT

mining

Makita

MKTAY

tools

Royal Dutch Shell

RDS-A

Big Oil

Monsanto

MON

agriculture

Transocean

RIG

oil drilling

Boston Beer

SAM

beer

ExxonMobil

XOM

Big Oil

Total

TOT

Big Oil

Nat Oilwell Varco

NOV

oil services

Yanzhou

YZC

coal mining

Energy Select SPDR

XLE

ETF

Corning

GLW

technology

Arcelor Mittal

MT

steel

Occidental Petro

OXY

oil & gas

Frontier Oil

FTO

refining

ABB

ABB

electrical equip

Aluminum China

ACH

aluminum

China South Air

ZNH

airlines

Taiwan Fund

TWN

ETF

Loews

LTR

holding co

Intel

INTC

semiconductors

Siemens

SI

telecom

Research In Motion

RIMM

BlackBerrys

Pier 1 Imports

PIR

home furnishings

Paccar

PCAR

trucks

Churchill Downs

CHDN

horse racing

Helmerich & Payne

HP

oil drilling

Lyondell

LYO

chemicals

Vail Resorts

MTN

resorts

Oil Service HOLDRs

OIH

ETF

John Wiley & Sons

JW-A

publishing

LG. Phillips

LPL

electronics

Caterpillar

CAT

heavy equip

Company Sym Industry

Dominos

DPZ

restaurants

Warner Music

WMG

music label

Diversa

DVSA

biotech

BUCA

BUCA

restaurants

US Airways

LCC

airlines

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