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Premium Pricing: The New Economics of Drugs
By Rob Fannon, editor, Phase 1 Investor
January 25, 2007

A prescription for the top-selling biotech drug Avastin will cost you $5,500 per month.

In contrast, taking the conventional drug Lipitor will cost you approximately $1,100 per year.

Lipitor is Pfizer's blockbuster cholesterol medication – the world's top-selling conventional drug. Avastin is a colorectal cancer drug, produced by leading biotech firm Genentech.

Of course, total Lipitor sales dwarf those of Avastin because so many people have high cholesterol. Nevertheless, the hugely different price tags provide an important insight into the economics of drug development.

They also show why Merck and Pfizer have both set their sights on becoming the largest biotech company in the world within a few years.

Today, genetic tests and other technologies that probe the underlying molecular fingerprint of disease are hallmarks of modern medicine. The biotech industry is using this information to design drugs based on the fundamental biology of the body – also known as "rational design."

Avastin demonstrates the rational design concept perfectly:

In cancer, a series of molecular events results in uncontrolled cell growth and tumor formation. The body forms blood vessels to feed the tumor's high demands. Avastin works by blocking the protein responsible for blood vessel growth around the tumor. The tumor is starved to death.

Of course, this is a simplistic depiction. Avastin is a highly complex protein-based drug that must be infused every two weeks in a hospital setting, unlike Lipitor pills that can be popped at home on a daily basis. But it's so effective that many predict it will become the top-selling cancer drug of all time.

Modern medicine and drug development continue to move toward a more direct biological and molecular interrogation of disease. The result will be more specific and complex drugs. However, such drugs command premium pricing, and biotech drug prices have soared more than 500% in recent years. Check out the price tags on other common biotech drugs:

Drug
Indication
Monthly Cost
Company
       

Iressa

Lung Cancer

$2,000

AstraZeneca

Herceptin

Breast Cancer

$2,100

Genentech

Enbrel

Rheumatoid Arthritis

$1,750

Amgen/Wyeth

Gleevec

Leukemia

$3,500

Novartis

Remicade

Crohn's disease

$4,000

Johnson & Johnson

Only four new biotech drugs were approved in 2006. With prices like these, Big Pharma will continue to troll the biotech sector in search of new products and companies that produce them.

Of course, products with premium prices require premium deals. The biotech sector stands to profit handsomely in the many years to come. Along with Big Pharma, I'm continually trolling the sector in search of higher returns for my Phase 1 Investor subscribers.

I look for companies that are developing new methods and technologies for designing biotech drugs, companies that will offer Big Pharma the chance at not just one blockbuster drug, but a whole series of them.

Last year was great for Phase 1... I'm hopeful 2007 will be even better.

Good investing,

Rob Fannon
Editor, Phase 1 Investor

European Bond Risk at Historical Low
The risk of owning European corporate bonds dropped to a record low as companies reduced borrowing, according to credit-default swap traders.

The cost of credit-default swaps based on 10 million euros ($13 million) of debt included in the benchmark iTraxx Crossover Index of 45 European companies fell to 193,500 euros from 198,500 euros, according to Deutsche Bank AG. A decline indicates credit risks are falling. Read on...

Mortgage Firms Help You Help Them
As the number of borrowers falling behind on their mortgage payments climbs to the highest level in five years, the mortgage industry is trying new strategies to help bail them out.

Much of the attention is on homeowners who in recent years took out adjustable-rate mortgages, a popular way to finance a home when interest rates were low. Now, with rates having moved up, many of these borrowers have recently seen, or soon will see, their mortgage rates adjust higher for the first time.
WSJ ($) Read on...


Steelmakers up on commodities surge: Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, Posco, AK Steel, Mittal

Major investment banks hitting highs: Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Lehman Brothers

In The News: Delinquent mortgages reach five-year high

Earnings today: AT&T, Beazer Homes, Ford, Microsoft

Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500 1439.41 0.80% 13.62%
Oil (USO)* 46.03 0.83% -32.15%
Gold (GLD) 64.29 0.09% 15.36%
Silver (SLV)* 132.06 -0.32% -4.39%
US Dollar 84.97 0.40% -3.69%
Euro 1.295 -0.61% 5.59%
VIX 10.77 -0.74% -26.03%
HUI 315.04 1.31% 3.89%
10-year yield 4.76% 0.01 0.40
* Since ETF inception

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