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A China Play No One
Talks About

by Graham Summers

September 20, 2006

The workers were getting frantic.

Some had begun building dams out of wood, debris, dirt… anything they could get their hands on.

Others were digging holes beside the river, hoping to divert some of the toxic sludge into them.

But with every second, the 60 tons of coal tar slid further down the river towards the Wangkuai Reservoir in Baoding: a city of about 10 million people.

Coal tar has been linked to cancer at certain levels. And a truck accident had just dumped 60 tons of the stuff into the Dasha River. Following the spill, in some sections of the river, levels of carbolic acid were 100 times greater than acceptable.

In other words, the primary source of water for a city of 10 million people had gone toxic.

This may sound like a scene from a Jerry Bruckheimer movie, but accidents and subsequent cleanups like this one are a regular occurrence in China. Chinese officials claim there were 76 pollution accidents in the first half of 2006.

Altogether, the Chinese Government estimates that as many as 340 million people in China are unable to get water that is clean enough to drink.

That number will continue growing as well: China produces roughly 3.7 billion tons of wastewater a year. Currently only about one third of this is treated.

A country simply cannot attain First World status without proper water. And with the 2008 Beijing games just a few years away, China is making the improvement of its water supplies a priority.

Water is the source of life and the foundation on which the human civilization relies for survival and development,” commented Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan during the opening ceremony for an international water conference.

So far, China has relied on privately held foreign companies for aid in cleaning up and stabilizing its water supplies. Since 1992, French utility giant, Suez (SZE) has signed 18 contracts to service water in some of the more high-income areas of China. Similarly, another French company, Veolia Environment (VE), is involved in some 13 projects.

Most recently, Beijing Capital announced plans to create China’s first water industry fund. The company has already invested more than $755 million in 12 water projects in China. Now it’s looking to start a fund that would help finance future water projects for the country.

Wastewater and water infrastructure plays are going to be huge in China in the next two years. Fortunes will be made as the country dumps capital into the sector, in hopes of cleaning up its act before stepping into the international spotlight with the 2008 Olympic games.

I’ll be researching water companies over the next couple of weeks. And I’ll report to you here as soon as I find some of the more promising opportunities.

Good trading,

Graham

Australia Cuts Wheat Forecast by 28%
“Australia, the world's second- largest wheat exporter, cut its forecast for the coming harvest by 28 percent after dry weather damaged crops and curbed yield.

The October-to-January harvest may produce 16.4 million metric tons of wheat, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said in a statement today. That compares with the 22.8 million tons it forecast in June and the 25.1 million tons gathered last year.

Wheat prices have gained 17 percent this year amid concern dry weather may cut Australian, European and U.S. output and as Indian purchases rose. Developing El Nino weather conditions in the Pacific Ocean may cause drought in Australia, which supplied about 14 percent of the wheat traded globally last harvest.”
Read On...

Fund Loses 50% on Gas Trades This Month
“Amaranth Advisors LLC, a hedge-fund manager with $9.5 billion in assets, warned investors that its two main funds fell almost 50 percent this month because of a plunge in natural-gas prices.

'We are in discussions with our prime brokers and other counterparties and are working to protect our investors while meeting the obligations of our creditors,' Nick Maounis, founder of the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm, said in a letter to investors obtained by Bloomberg News. The funds, which had gained 26 percent through August, are down at least 35 percent for the year.

Amaranth, which made so-called spread trades that try to profit from price discrepancies among futures contracts, is at least the second hedge fund to be hurt by this year's tumble in natural gas.”
Read On...


Goldman Sachs is betting on India's fast growth, plans to pump $1 billion into the country over the next two years.

Earnings Today: Morgan Stanley, Bed Bath & Beyond, Carmax, Circuit City.

In The News: Wheat prices jump as the world's second-largest wheat exporter cuts its forecast by 28 percent. Mega hedge fund, Amaranth, loses 50% of its assets on gas trades in one month.

Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500 1321.18 0.10% 6.73%
Oil (USO)* 58.32 0.45% -14.03%
Gold (GLD)* 58.23 1.45% 27.08%
Silver (SLV)* 111.70 3.44% -19.13%
US Dollar 85.80 -0.21% -2.57%
Euro 1.270 0.36% 3.78%
VIX 11.78 0.17% 4.99%
^HUI 306.84 2.82% 28.10%
10-year yield 4.81% 0.01 0.55
* Since ETF inception

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