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Tuesday, December 12, 2006

A Government-Mandated Bull Market
By Jeff Clark

There’s nothing like the smell of pine needles in the morning.

We put up our Christmas trees last weekend, and now the house smells like the Oregon wilderness. And, yes, I wrote “trees” – as in plural, more than one.

We have five Christmas trees this year. That might be overkill, but Christmas is a big deal in our house. And it’s a big deal for Tom, the man who sells me the trees every year.

“It’s a good business,” Tom says to me. “We plant three trees for every one we cut down. The trees never complain. And the customers are always happy and smiling.”

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“And it’s profitable, too,” he said as I handed over a check for the five trees. “But the real money is in the scrap.”

Recycling old Christmas trees is a great business. And it’s about to get even better.

Most people don’t give any thought to what happens after they plop the old Tannenbaum by the curb in early January and wait for the big green truck to come by and take it away. But old Christmas trees are put through a wood chipper and the shredded remains are used as mulch for gardens, as a ground cover to prevent beach erosion, and now… as energy.

As it turns out, wood chips and pine needles are an excellent fuel source for the production of cellulosic ethanol.

Cellulosic ethanol is the redheaded stepchild of the renewable energy business. Corn-based ethanol gets all the press, but as the increasing price of corn renders corn-based ethanol inefficient, cutting-edge companies are pursuing cellulosic ethanol.

Imagine creating energy from yard clippings. That’s what has energy-company executives so excited they’ve called it “the holy grail.”

And the government is right there to help with the funding…

The Energy Policy Act of 2005 contains several provisions designed to spur cellulosic ethanol production:

It creates a credit-trading program wherein one gallon of cellulosic ethanol or waste-derived ethanol is equal to 2.5 gallons of renewable fuel.

It creates a loan-guarantee program of $250 million per facility.

It creates a $650 million grant program for cellulosic ethanol.

It creates a $550 million Advanced Biofuels Technologies program.

It targets biomass research and development.

It establishes a program of production incentives to deliver the first billion gallons of annual cellulosic ethanol production.

So here we have the potential for a renewable energy product that’s made from otherwise useless resources. It is cheap, highly energy efficient, and now funded by the government.

No wonder Tom is such happy guy.

Best regards and good trading, 

Jeff Clark

P.S. There’s just a small handful of publicly traded companies involved in the cellulosic ethanol business… and I detailed the three best opportunities in last month’s Big Trend Report.

Two of these stocks could easily climb 100% in the next year as the government-mandated bull market takes off. Click here if you’re interested in finding out more.

Wall Street Earnings May Have Peaked
“After three years of record earnings, the best may have already come and gone for Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. will be hard-pressed in 2007 to match this year's profits with the U.S. economy growing at the slowest pace in a year and interest rates rising in Europe and Japan.

The companies also have to contend with a decline in trading of stocks on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, a 15 percent drop in sales of mortgage derivatives and concerns about the record amounts of debt being used to finance takeovers.” Read on…

Ethanol use sends price of corn to 11-year high
“Farmers are getting the best prices for corn in more than a decade amid strong demand for ethanol and feed, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Monday.

Average corn prices for the year were forecast at $2.90 to $3.30 a bushel, up 10 cents from last month's estimate, according to the monthly crop report.

‘We think about 50% of the corn crop has been marketed this year at an average price of about $2.70 a bushel,’ said Keith Collins, the USDA's chief economist. ‘As we look for the other 50% to be marketed, we think it could probably average about $3.50 a bushel.’” Read on…


Chinese stocks continue to run: new highs for China Unicom, China Netcom, PetroChina, and Greater China Fund.

Electricity-related stocks running as well: Quanta Services (electrical contractor) and ABB Ltd. (electrical equipment) at new highs.

Megacap stocks surging: iShares Global 100 ETF at new high. Major holdings include General Electric, Microsoft, and British Petroleum.

Earnings Today: Goldman Sachs and Best Buy
Last Change 52-Wk
S&P 500 1413.04 0.23% 12.20%
Oil (USO)* 53.00 -1.08% -21.88%
Gold (GLD)* 62.57 0.84% 19.41%
Silver (SLV)* 138.15 0.99% 0.02%
US Dollar 83.18 -0.14% -8.89%
Euro 1.324 0.27% 12.06%
VIX 10.71 -11.27% -8.38%
^HUI 348.15 0.90% 33.22%
10-year yield 4.52% -0.03 -0.02
* Since ETF inception

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Company Sym Industry
ABB Ltd. ABB electrical equip
iShares China FXI Chinese stocks
iShares Global 100 IOO megacap stocks
Quanta Services PWR electrical constr.
Tejon Ranch TRC land development
PS Food & Bev PBJ food ETF
PS Telecom & Wire PTE telecom ETF
PS Media PBS media ETF

Thai Capital Fund

TF

Thai stocks

Wynn Resorts

WYNN

casinos

CBS

CBS

broadcasting

Under Armour

UARM

athletic apparel

China Unicom

CHU

telecom

Synopsys

SNPS

software

Terra

TRA

agriculture

Ameriprise Financial

AMP

asset mgmt

Time Warner

TWX

entertainment

AT&T

T

telecom

DirecTV

DTV

satellite TV

Bunge

BG

agribusiness

Ares Capital

ARCC

investments

Lexmark

LXK

printers

Disney

DIS

entertainment

Biomet

BMET

medical equip

PetroChina

PTR

Big Oil

Claire's

CLE

retail jewelry

Albemarle

ALB

chemicals

Coca-Cola

KO

soft drinks

Macquarie Global

MGU

investment fund

CarMax

KMX

auto dealer

BellSouth

BLS

telecom

Phelps Dodge

PD

copper

Shire

SHPGY

pharma

Allegheny

ATI

metals

Kaiser Aluminum

KALU

aluminum

Syngenta

SYT

agriculture

Mosaic

MOS

agriculture

Corus

CGA

steel

Company Sym Industry
LG.Philips LPL LCD screens
Doral Financial DRL mortgages
FuelCell FCEL clean energy
Evergreen Energy EEE clean coal
Accr Home Lend LEND mortgages

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