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This Oil Trade Could Make You 25% in a Week

By Jeff Clark
Monday, March 16, 2009

Earlier this month, I told you my favorite oil stock indicator was flashing a buy signal. It's turning out great...
 
As you can see below, oil has had a wild ride over the past year. After peaking above $140 per barrel last July, and then dropping to just above $30 in December, oil has made a steady, quiet move higher to $45.
 
Now, as you can see from the following chart, oil is on the verge of breaking out to the upside of an ascending-triangle pattern:
 
 
 
A move above $48 per barrel projects a rally to as high as $70. Obviously, that'll be a bullish development for oil stocks. And if the overall stock market can rally as well (and I think it will), there will be twice as much buying pressure in the oil sector.
 
Here is an updated chart of the bullish percent index for the energy sector (BPENER)...
 
 
 
This chart displays the percentage of oil stocks trading with bullish technical patterns. Oil stocks are overbought whenever the chart rises above 70, and the sector is oversold when the chart drops below 10.
 
The circles mark the various buy and sell signals generated over the past few months. The most recent buy signal triggered early this month, and there is plenty of room left for it to run.
 
So with the overall market set to rally... and with the price of oil on the verge of breaking out to the upside... and with oil stocks in the early stages of a buy signal, the smart bet is on higher oil-stock prices.
 
Best regards and good trading,
 
Jeff Clark




In The Daily Crux
Market Notes
Top-performing sector this year... Internet stocks, up 1.8%.
 
Worst performing sector... no surprise, financial stocks, down 32.6%.
 
But major financial ETF(IYR) rallying back towards November panic low.
Market Watch
Symbol Price
Change
52-Wk
S&P 500 1221.53 +1.28% +10.12%
Oil 38.31 +1.43% -0.55%
Gold 138.07 +2.12% +16.32%
Silver 28.60 +2.40% +53.60%
US-Dollar 80.67 -0.81% +8.09%
Euro 1.32 +0.64% -12.10%
Volatility 18.01 -7.12% -19.81%
Gold Stocks 581.56 +3.02% +17.04%
10-Year Yield 3.02 +0.67% -10.65%

World ETFs
Symbol Price
Change
52-Wk
USA 122.89 +0.27% +11.33%
Canada 30.50 +0.20% +16.19%
Russia 21.94 +1.43% +18.08%
India 37.85 +0.32% +22.33%
Israel 16.69 +1.34% +10.75%
Japan 10.64 +0.57% +6.51%
Singapore 13.73 -1.08% +18.77%
Taiwan 14.78 +0.41% +19.19%
S. Korea 57.31 +1.33% +23.38%
S. Africa 71.87 +1.44% +28.20%
China 44.42 -1.42% -0.58%
Lat.America 53.17 +0.66% +8.38%

Sector ETFs
Symbol Price
Change
52-Wk
Oil Service 137.59 +1.04% +18.94%
Big Pharma 64.14 +0.02% -3.24%
Internet 72.07 -0.08% +23.41%
Semis 16.22 +1.19% +29.35%
Utilities 31.28 +0.22% +1.46%
Defense 18.52 +0.05% +10.57%
Nanotech 10.03 +0.40% +1.62%
Alt. Energy 10.08 +1.31% -3.26%
Water 18.49 +0.98% +14.49%
Insurance 16.14 +0.44% +21.08%
Biotech 20.54 -0.19% +28.13%
Retail 19.70 +0.25% +30.20%
Software 24.79 +0.81% +25.90%
Big Tech 53.87 +0.26% +22.74%
Construction 13.10 +0.85% +15.72%
Media 13.64 +0.52% +25.95%
Consumer Svcs 67.39 +0.19% +24.54%
Financials 55.04 +0.31% +7.44%
Health Care 64.30 +0.12% +2.01%
Industrials 63.54 +0.46% +21.03%
Basic Mat 74.35 +1.06% +25.27%
Real Estate 55.32 +0.14% +25.02%
Transportation 91.77 +0.66% +26.93%
Telecom 22.59 +0.49% +17.78%