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Big Upside in this "Life or Death" MarketBy Rob Fannon, editor Phase 1 InvestorFriday, September 25, 2009 The diagnostics industry was once regarded as a red-headed stepchild for medical investors.
Focused on cheap tests for cholesterol and blood sugar, the market quickly became commoditized. Size, scale, and consolidation overran the industry. Anyone with access to low-wage technicians could enter this game.
Things have changed. Diagnostics now does $50 billion in annual business. The technology is increasingly sophisticated. Trained geneticists and molecular biologists run tests with huge price tags. The rewards for early investors can be huge...
Today, I'm most interested in a hidden and ultra-fast-growing subsector of medical testing market: cancer diagnostics. Here, speed and accuracy is critical for life-or-death decisions. And the companies with the best technologies own the market.
Take leukemia diagnostics...
Mutations in more than 50 genes can contribute to or exacerbate the progression of leukemia. Diagnosis is time-consuming and expensive, on average $3,000 per procedure. But identifying the right disease fast is absolutely critical...
Chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), for example, is a rare blood disorder that springs from a single genetic alteration. Because the disease's early stages come with no symptoms, some CML patients go undiagnosed for months. If caught too late, CML can kill within weeks. But if doctors pick it up early enough, one "miracle drug" – Gleevac – can help CML patients live more than eight years with the disease.
But Gleevec is utterly worthless in other leukemias, including the genetically similar (and equally devastating) acute lymphoblastic leukemia. These patients are limited to chemotherapy, radiation, and bone marrow transplant. An imprecise diagnosis can waste crucial days and weeks.
Today, cancer diagnostics is a $6 billion market. It's growing more than 10% a year. And this growth rate will pick up in the years ahead. Here's why:
Cancer remains one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Roughly 15% of the population gets some form of the disease at some point in their life. In the U.S. alone, more than 1.5 million new cancer diagnoses are made every year.
Hundreds of companies are clamoring for a piece of the growing cancer diagnostics market. Two of my favorites are Genomic Health (GHDX) and Myriad Genetics (MYGN). Each offer testing products for breast cancer.
Myriad sells a screening test for women who come from families with a history of breast cancer. Women pre-disposed to the disease have a chance to pursue preventative medical strategies. Genomic Health's test predicts whether a patient's breast cancer will respond to chemotherapy or not, based on a tumor's molecular "fingerprint."
With the coming growth in the diagnostics industry, both Genomic and Myriad are attractive long-term investments at current prices. These companies have the technology and expertise to dominate their niche. And their products can mean the difference between life and death.
Good investing,
Rob Fannon
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