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The Commodity Investor Q&A

By Matt Badiali, editor, S&A Resource Report
Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Q: I'm concerned that the gold price got ahead of itself. Should I sell my mining stocks? – J.A.
 
A: The gold market today reminds me of the oil market in 2006.
 
Oil climbed all the way through midsummer 2008, when it peaked at $145 per barrel. Few people expected oil to go that high – including me. But my S&A Resource Report readers were in it for the whole run.
 
 
We held on to our winners, banking 27 double-digit gains. We even made 165% on Brazilian oil giant Petrobras before our trailing stop kicked us out.
 
The key to bull markets is to hang on to your winners.
 
The investing classic Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, by speculator Edwin Lefevre, tells the story of Mr. Partridge, who is advised to sell a stock then buy it back when it's cheaper. He says, "I couldn't possibly do that."
 
When asked why, he says, "Well, this is a bull market, you know!"
 
By the end of 2007, the price of a barrel of oil had climbed 90%, hitting $95. It seemed outrageous to me. But we had no reason to sell. It was a bull market.
 
The same is true in gold today...
 
In 2000, not many people imagined gold would run from $275 to over $1,000 in less than 10 years. And, yes, that's quite a run. But it's a bull market. Who knows how far it can go? I certainly don't.
 
 
 
When the trend is up, you should ride along. Enjoy your gold stocks and the run in gold. Let the market – through trailing stops – tell you when to exit. It's a bull market, after all.
 
Good investing,
 
Matt  




In The Daily Crux
Market Notes
Blue-chip steel producer U.S. Steel breaks down to three-month low.
 
Brazil reverses off recent high... fund EWZ falls 6% from peak.
 
High-yield corporate debt continues climb... fund PHK touches fresh 52-week high, yields 13.9%.
 
Earnings today... Aflac, ConocoPhillips, First Solar, Goodyear, O'Reilly, Symantec.
Market Watch
Symbol Price
Change
52-Wk
S&P 500 1221.53 +1.28% +10.12%
Oil 37.77 +1.53% -2.75%
Gold 135.20 -0.13% +13.44%
Silver 27.93 +0.43% +47.86%
US-Dollar 80.67 -0.81% +8.09%
Euro 1.32 +0.64% -12.10%
Volatility 19.39 -9.22% -8.19%
Gold Stocks 564.53 +1.34% +10.57%
10-Year Yield 3.00 +1.35% -9.64%

World ETFs
Symbol Price
Change
52-Wk
USA 122.56 +1.28% +10.17%
Canada 30.44 +1.33% +13.84%
Russia 21.63 +2.27% +16.67%
India 37.73 +1.92% +19.97%
Israel 16.47 +0.86% +9.65%
Japan 10.58 +0.95% +7.41%
Singapore 13.88 +1.02% +19.24%
Taiwan 14.72 +1.59% +17.76%
S. Korea 56.56 +1.67% +22.80%
S. Africa 70.85 +3.89% +22.94%
China 45.06 +1.37% +0.13%
Lat.America 52.82 +1.40% +6.71%

Sector ETFs
Symbol Price
Change
52-Wk
Oil Service 136.18 +1.51% +14.84%
Big Pharma 64.13 +0.61% -3.32%
Internet 72.13 +0.70% +22.34%
Semis 16.03 +2.10% +28.86%
Utilities 31.21 +0.29% +1.56%
Defense 18.51 +1.26% +10.11%
Nanotech 9.99 +1.32% 0.00%
Alt. Energy 9.95 +1.43% -4.42%
Water 18.31 +1.10% +12.19%
Insurance 16.07 +1.20% +18.34%
Biotech 20.58 +1.08% +27.12%
Retail 19.65 +0.10% +28.43%
Software 24.59 +0.94% +24.07%
Big Tech 53.73 +1.02% +21.92%
Construction 12.99 +2.12% +13.25%
Media 13.57 +1.12% +24.95%
Consumer Svcs 67.26 +0.81% +23.30%
Financials 54.87 +2.39% +5.18%
Health Care 64.22 +0.74% +1.31%
Industrials 63.25 +1.61% +19.70%
Basic Mat 73.57 +1.56% +21.56%
Real Estate 55.24 +1.36% +23.77%
Transportation 91.17 +1.35% +25.60%
Telecom 22.48 +1.08% +17.08%

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