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The Commodity Investor Q&ABy Matt Badiali, editor, S&A Resource ReportWednesday, October 21, 2009 Q: Could you please tell us how to calculate how much natural gas storage capacity is still available? – S.L.
A: As you know, we have an enormous glut of natural gas. The volume of gas in storage is about 15% higher than average. We put around 65 billion cubic feet of gas in storage every week. We can do that for just six more weeks. Then we're full.
We store natural gas in old oil and gas fields, salt domes, and even aquifers. Old fields make up the largest volume of storage, about 81% of the 8.5 trillion cubic feet of capacity. Some of those require a certain amount of gas to keep the cracks open, called "base gas." Base gas volume remains steady around 4.3 trillion cubic feet. The remaining 4.2 trillion cubic feet of storage is for "working gas." That's gas available for use.
The Energy Information Administration publishes how much working gas we have in storage. As of October 9, that was 3.7 trillion cubic feet. We only have 0.5 trillion cubic feet of storage left. In other words, we're at 94% capacity. Over the last six weeks, we added about 65 billion cubic feet per week. Unless demand changes quickly, we'll fill up the remaining space by early December.
Producers can't just shut off supply. That can damage the gas reservoir or bankrupt the company. So if we fill up storage capacity, producers will still sell into the market regardless of price... and we'll see historically cheap natural gas.
To keep track of the storage situation yourself, go to the EIA's website here. Look at the table for Working Gas in Underground Storage. In the lower left corner, you can see the total for the week (3,716 billion cubic feet, as of October 9). Subtract that number from 4,200 billion cubic feet and you can see how much room we have left.
You can also scroll down and check out the "Working Gas in Underground Storage" graph. That shows you the trend in red, compared to the historical range in gray.
Q: Why aren't we selling our natural gas to other countries, rather than having the oversupply problems we currently have? – M.W.
A: The current glut of natural gas is a recent phenomenon. Even in early 2008, natural gas prices spiked to nearly $14 per thousand cubic feet. Analysts thought we'd be net importers of natural gas. So our infrastructure is behind the times.
Right now, we have too many liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals and almost no LNG export terminals. I'm waiting for some smart entrepreneur to buy out Cheniere Energy. The company owns five LNG import terminal projects in Texas and Louisiana. It is so deep in debt it should be in bankruptcy... but that is an opportunity for someone.
If I had a couple of billion dollars lying around, I'd buy the company, convert the ports to export LNG, and start shipping gas abroad. That way, when Russia cuts off European gas supplies again this winter, I could capitalize in a big way... for humanitarian purposes of course.
Unfortunately, I don't have a couple billion dollars and I don't see an export solution in the near future. We're just going to have to use that natural gas ourselves.
Good investing,
Matt
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